As of Q1 2026, both memory and NAND prices have soared over 90%, with an anticipated further increase of 20% predicted for Q2 2026.
Memory and NAND Price Increases in Q1 2026: Potential Hikes for Q2
Recent insights from a report by Counterpoint Research highlight the dramatic surge in memory and NAND prices, which have experienced a significant increase of 90% in Q1 2026. The report draws from the company’s dedicated memory price tracker, shedding light on the challenges facing the PC and server sectors due to acute shortages in DRAM and NAND components. Key findings from the analysis include:
- Memory prices have risen by 80% to 90% in Q1 2026 compared to Q4 2025, with DRAM, NAND, and HBM recording unprecedented highs.
- To alleviate cost pressures, original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) are either reducing the memory specifications in devices or focusing on premium models that utilize LPDDR5, which encounter less aggressive price hikes.
- In Q4 2025, margins for conventional DRAM outstripped those of HBM, and operating margins for manufacturers are projected to reach historic levels, leading to record earnings in Q1 2026.
Despite the report assessing memory prices only up until February 2026, it is noteworthy that prices have already surged over 90%, effectively doubling from Q4 2025 figures.
In Q4 2025, memory prices for PCs witnessed an increase of approximately 35%, while NAND prices surged by 20%.The server market experienced steeper hikes, with memory costs escalating by 76% and NAND by 60%.Predictions for Q1 2026 indicate that PC memory and NAND prices may exceed 90% and 100%, respectively, while server prices are anticipated to rise over 98% and 90% for memory and NAND, respectively.
The findings also forecast an additional 15-20% price increase for Q2 2026. However, due to the unprecedented demand for AI technologies, the actual surge in memory and NAND prices may exceed these predictions as supply challenges intensify.
Notably, certain high-end DDR5 memory kits have experienced price hikes of three to five times compared to their costs in Q4 2025, mirroring the rising trends in NAND pricing.
Senior Analyst Jeongku Choi commented on the situation, stating, “For device manufacturers, this is a double whammy – rising component costs and weakened consumer purchasing power will likely slow the demand as the quarter progresses. This calls for OEMs to change procurement patterns or focus on premium models to justify the higher price by delivering more value to consumers.”
Choi also remarked, “The memory profitability is expected to reach unprecedented levels. DRAM operating margins have already reached the 60% range in Q4 2025, marking the first time margins for general-purpose DRAM have surpassed those of HBM. The first quarter of 2026 is set to be the period where DRAM margins exceed their historical peaks for the first time. Having said that, this will either set a new normal or a very high bar which looks solid now but could make the next down cycle (if there is one) look uglier.”
While some reports suggest that memory prices might stabilize, numerous OEMs and industry experts continue to forecast rising memory and NAND prices until at least 2027, with normalization anticipated in the second half of 2027 or early 2028. If prices cease their upward trend soon, it would be a relief for many stakeholders. However, current analyses indicate that it may still take a significant amount of time before such a reprieve occurs. Meanwhile, Chinese memory solutions are becoming increasingly valued as a viable alternative during this turbulent period.
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