Analyst Predicts Stricter NVIDIA AI GPU Export Control Regulations Under Trump Administration

This is not investment advice. The author holds no positions in the stocks mentioned.

Recent regulations instituted by the Biden Administration, which impose restrictions on the sale of AI chips to countries that do not align with U.S. national security priorities, are expected to remain intact under the forthcoming Trump Administration. This assessment comes from a semiconductor analyst based in Taiwan. These export control measures were introduced shortly after the CES conference in Las Vegas amid new reports highlighting challenges with Blackwell GPU supplies, prompting a strong reaction from NVIDIA.

As a dominant player in the global AI chip market, NVIDIA has criticized the new regulations, claiming they undermine U.S. technology leadership by placing semiconductor export management in the hands of bureaucrats.

Implications of Restrictive GPU Export Rules in a Trump Administration

The Biden Administration’s regulations categorize countries based on their alignment with U.S. national security interests regarding the export of NVIDIA’s advanced AI GPUs. The first category includes nations that are either allies or pose no threat to the U.S., allowing them to obtain these chips freely. The second category consists of hostile nations, notably Russia and Iran, which are entirely prohibited from acquiring U.S.-origin GPUs or AI-related software.

The third category involves countries like India that can import GPUs but face regulatory scrutiny. Specific limits are imposed, permitting the import of up to 1,700 GPUs without extensive oversight, primarily to prevent these nations from developing robust data centers capable of advanced military research.

Additionally, these regulations restrict the disclosure of critical AI software components, such as model weights, to foreign nations. NVIDIA has voiced its concerns, stating that these rules threaten to “derail innovation and economic growth worldwide.”Although these regulations will not take effect for 120 days, NVIDIA warns that they already compromise U.S. interests.

Despite NVIDIA’s favorable remarks regarding the previous Trump presidency, analysts suggest the current export regulations will likely become more stringent during the next administration. Dylan Nystedt, a financial analyst from Taipei, expressed on social media that the issue is unlikely to diminish under President Trump’s leadership. According to him, the likelihood is that restrictions will intensify rather than relax.

Nystedt references Dr. Morris Chang, founder of TSMC, who commented in 2023 that globalization is effectively dead. Dr. Chang’s views on globalization have been echoed in prior statements, noting that slowing China’s advancements aligns with U.S. policy objectives.

The analyst further highlights the role of supercomputers in aiding adversarial nations like China and Russia in developing advanced military technologies. “Supercomputers have already facilitated the development of hypersonic missiles, advanced aircraft, and improved nuclear modeling in these countries,”he asserted.

Consequently, there is a growing concern among U.S. policymakers that AI advancements could empower adversaries to create superior weaponry, surpassing what has traditionally been achievable through standard design software. Nystedt also shared a widely discussed image of a purported sixth-generation fighter aircraft prototype in China, which appears to compete with Northrop Grumman’s Next-Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) platform.

In concluding his analysis, Nystedt argues that NVIDIA’s criticisms of U.S. government policies are misdirected. He emphasizes, “In its enthusiasm to promote computing for the good of humanity, NVIDIA overlooks the existence of genuine threats around the world.”

Nvidia is unlikely to see any change to the new US export rules on ‘AI Diffusion’ unveiled Monday (1/13).

It is not an issue that might go away under President Trump.

It is a US National Security issue.

Thread 1/6 $NVDA $AMD $INTC $TSM $HXSCL $MU $SSNLF #semiconductors

— Dan Nystedt (@dnystedt) January 14, 2025