Tesla Q1 2025 Deliveries Drop to Multi-Year Lows, Signaling a Potential Narrative Reset

This is not investment advice. The author has no position in any of the stocks mentioned.

Tesla’s Q1 2025 Deliveries: An Analysis of Current Trends

Tesla’s stock has experienced a significant decline of approximately 30% this year. Amid this bearish sentiment, analysts are watching closely as they believe much of the negative outlook may already be reflected in the share price. A recent perspective suggests that disappointing delivery numbers for the first quarter of 2025 could represent a conclusive low point for Tesla’s stock, potentially paving the way for a much-needed narrative shift.

As we assess Tesla’s delivery performance for Q1 2025, it’s important to consider the various estimates provided by analysts. According to data compiled by Tesla’s Investor Relations, the expected deliveries were around 377, 600 units. In contrast, Bloomberg analysts had a higher consensus estimate of 390, 600 units, though some of these figures may not have been updated for some time. Independent analyst Troy Teslike estimated deliveries would be lower, at approximately 355, 000 units.

Delivery Breakdown and Production Insights

In their recent announcement, Tesla reported delivering a total of 336, 681 units in Q1 2025, with production figures reaching 362, 615 units during the same period. For context, Tesla recorded a much higher delivery of 495, 570 units in Q4 2024 with a production of 459, 445 units.

The current delivery statistics further reveal that out of the total for Q1 2025, 323, 800 units were the Model 3 and Y, with an additional 12, 881 units from other models, including the anticipated Cybertruck.

Hi everyone. Analyst consensus for Tesla’s full-year deliveries has dropped from 1.90M to 1.85M since my tweet below on March 23rd. Here’s the latest:

• My Estimate: Below 1.68M units• Analyst Consensus: 1.85M units• Tesla’s Target for 2025: 1.79M units• 2024 Deliveries:… https://t.co/7oqTKmKp6K

— Troy Teslike (@TroyTeslike) March 29, 2025

Recent estimates suggest Wall Street now anticipates Tesla will deliver roughly 1.85 million vehicles over the course of 2025. This revised outlook follows a concerning trend for Tesla, as competition from Chinese EV manufacturers intensifies and geopolitical issues have caused disruptions in several markets, notably in Europe and the U. S.A recent survey indicated that 94% of German respondents hold a negative view of Tesla, largely influenced by CEO Elon Musk’s public association with certain political groups.

Analyzing the operational metrics, the Days of Finished Goods Inventory for Tesla at the end of Q4 2024 was recorded at about 12 days, with an inventory of 77, 330 units. However, this situation changed dramatically in Q1 2025. The Days of Finished Goods Inventory rose to 23, driven by an increased inventory of 103, 264 units and an average daily delivery rate of approximately 4, 489 vehicles.

$TSLA WS 1Q consensus estimates will be a topic of debate tomorrow when TSLA releases its 1Q production and delivery report. The freshest estimates are the $TSLA IR-compiled summary released last week, which showed 377.6K. Bloomberg consensus estimates show 390.6K but includes… pic.twitter.com/Nm7HgOBjv0

— Gary Black (@garyblack00) April 1, 2025

Looking ahead, financial analysts like Gary Black contend that the current delivery figures may initiate a pivotal reset in Tesla’s market narrative, which could encourage investor optimism in light of upcoming product launches, particularly the introduction of unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology scheduled for June in Austin, Texas. However, the challenges posed by U. S.tariffs on auto imports make it uncertain how they will affect Tesla’s plans to roll out a more affordable hatchback model in early 2025.

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