SMIC’s 5nm Wafer Yields Estimated at 60-70%, Signifying a Key Milestone for Sub-7nm Production, Yet Opinions Differ on These Assertions

The Kirin 9000S, produced by SMIC utilizing a 7nm fabrication process, has made significant waves within the semiconductor sector, illustrating China’s commitment to narrowing the technological divide with the United States. Although last year’s reports indicated that SMIC was on the verge of achieving its 5nm node, the most sophisticated System-on-Chip (SoC) from Huawei had yet to transition from the older 7nm lithography. However, new claims suggest this may soon change, as SMIC reportedly boasts 5nm yield rates between 60-70%.Yet, skepticism surrounds these figures, leaving the industry in a state of anticipation.

Latest Rumors: SMIC’s 5nm Yields Compared to Samsung’s 3nm GAA Technology

The speculation was fueled by a tipster on Weibo known as Fixed Focus Digital, who asserted that SMIC’s yield metrics signify a pivotal shift in China’s wafer manufacturing capabilities. These yields are allegedly comparable to Samsung’s own 3nm GAA process, which powers the Exynos 2500 chip within the Galaxy Z Flip 7. Nevertheless, the response has been mixed, with some individuals vehemently disputing these claims.

A notable skepticism comes from @Jukanlosreve, who engaged with a confidential source in China. From this discussion, he implied that Fixed Focus Digital’s assertions may be unfounded. It’s worth noting that @Jukanlosreve had earlier indicated that SMIC is working towards completing its 5nm semiconductor development by 2025, but predicted that production costs might soar to 50% higher due to reliance on older Deep Ultraviolet (DUV) equipment rather than the newer Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) technology essential for efficient mass production at these dimensions and below.

SMIC's 5nm yields — These figures are honestly too good to be true

Given SMIC’s timeline for achieving 5nm production, skepticism towards the rumored yield figures is not unwarranted. Additionally, Huawei’s X90, which operates on its HarmonyOS notebooks, currently employs SMIC’s 7nm process. While a yield of 70% is typically conducive to commercial success, it’s prudent to approach the claims made by Fixed Focus Digital with a healthy degree of caution, especially since SMIC has not yet demonstrated substantial output that would support such assertions.

Encouragingly, reports indicate that China is in the process of testing its proprietary EUV machinery, with production trials anticipated to commence in the third quarter of 2025. SiCarrier, a firm closely associated with Huawei, has successfully secured funding of $2.8 billion to compete with ASML in delivering domestically manufactured EUV machines. Thus, even if SMIC faces obstacles in generating its own 5nm chips, they may still leverage third-party technology to achieve more advanced wafer production, contingent on the success of these suppliers.

News Source: Fixed Focus Digital

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