Phison CEO Warns of Prolonged DRAM & NAND Shortages Beyond 2030 Due to Industry ‘Structural Shift’ Threatening Consumer Businesses

Phison’s CEO, K. S.Pua, has recently shared insights regarding the future of the consumer technology landscape, particularly emphasizing the devastating repercussions of ongoing memory shortages on companies reliant on DRAM. According to Pua, many such businesses are facing potential extinction.

Phison’s CEO Highlights Unaddressed Enterprise Demand, Foreseeing a Dire Outlook for Consumers

As industry leaders assess the implications of chronic memory shortages, Phison’s CEO has provided stark warnings that may have escaped the attention of broader markets. In an interview with Chinese media outlet QQ_Timmy, Pua elaborated on the precarious state of both DRAM and NAND supply chains. His comments suggest that the entire memory industry is poised for significant disruption, with predictions of ongoing shortages extending into 2030.

《獨家專訪 #群聯 #Phison 執行長潘健成》核心結論1.記憶體供需嚴重失衡將持續到2030年AI為剛需，DRAM與NAND Flash極度缺貨。原廠要求預付3年貨款（電子業史無前例），賣方市場空前強勢。原廠內部預估缺到2030年，甚至10年不見盡頭。2.消費電子將大量死亡… https://t.co/FvVnb8tT2I

— Shun HaYaO (@QQ_Timmy) February 14, 2026

Foundries are demanding 3 years of prepaid payment (unprecedented in the electronics industry), with the seller’s market at an all-time high. Internal estimates from foundries suggest shortages will persist until 2030, or even potentially for a decade with no end in sight.

– Phison’s CEO

Currently, major technology firms grapple with the profound repercussions of these memory shortages on their product offerings. Phison predicts that the demand for NAND and DRAM could soar to unprecedented levels this year and remain high well into the next decade. Notably, Pua cautions that a number of consumer market segments could face significant disruption, with some businesses potentially shuttering due to the overwhelming demand for DRAM spurred by emerging AI technologies.

Two Hynix 2GB 1Rx8 PC4N-19000S memory modules labeled 'HMA325S7MFR8C - UG NO AA' placed on a vibrant silicon wafer surface. — Image Credits: SK hynix

From year-end to 2026, many system companies will shut down or exit product lines due to inability to secure memory. In the second half of 2026, large numbers of low-margin brands will exit, low-end products will disappear, creating a market vacuum until supply recovers and growth explodes again.

Looking ahead, the situation may worsen as NVIDIA’s Vera Rubin AI infrastructure rolls out. Pua warns that this development could trigger a surge in NAND demand that current suppliers will struggle to meet. He emphasizes that the broader impacts of ‘enterprise demand’ have yet to be adequately reflected in market forecasts, hinting at an imminent explosion of demand.

While the state of the DRAM and NAND industries is concerning, the rapid expansion of hyperscaler infrastructures is leading executives to brace for a “product winter, ”marked by supply constraints and delays in retail launches.

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