Mizuho Forecasts Huawei to Sell Over 700,000 Ascend 910 Series Chips in 2025 Despite SMIC’s Low Yield of Approximately 30%

This article does not constitute investment advice. The author does not hold positions in any of the stocks discussed.

Huawei’s Ascend 910C Chips Challenge NVIDIA’s Dominance

Recent assertions from Huawei, a leading player in China’s artificial intelligence sector, suggest that their Ascend 910C chips may rival NVIDIA’s H100 GPUs. The market reaction indicates that investors are taking these claims seriously, as NVIDIA shares experienced a brief decline following Huawei’s announcement.

Analyst Insights on Huawei’s Chips

Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh has provided intriguing insights in a report initially focused on NVIDIA. He shifted gears to discuss the potential impact of Huawei’s Ascend series:

“In China, we estimate Ascend 910a/b/c potentially at 700k+ units in 2025E but yields at key foundry SMIC remain fairly low, we estimate ~30%.”

A Closer Look at the Ascend 910C GPU

The Ascend 910C has been described as a significant moment for China’s semiconductor industry. This chip reportedly integrates two older models, the 910B, to achieve a remarkable computing power of 800 TFLOP/s at FP16, alongside a memory bandwidth of 3.2 TB/s. Analysts believe it stands on equal footing with NVIDIA’s H100 GPU, and it is set for market release as production ramps up at SMIC, China’s largest contract chip manufacturer.

Manufacturing Challenges

However, it is essential to note that the Ascend 910C relies on SMIC’s 7nm DUV-based fabrication process, which is presently hindered by low yields. Rakesh made this observation in his report, highlighting productivity issues that could affect Huawei’s market ambitions.

Strategic Partnerships and Future Prospects

In a notable development, Huawei is reportedly collaborating with SiCarrier to innovate next-generation lithography machines. Success in this venture could position SiCarrier as “China’s ASML, ”empowering the nation to better navigate the tightening restrictions imposed by the United States on its semiconductor industry.

Regulatory Challenges from the U. S.

Adding to these complexities, recent U. S.regulations now require licenses for NVIDIA’s specific GPUs aimed at the Chinese market, as well as for AMD’s alternatives. Furthermore, updated guidelines indicate that using Huawei’s Ascend 910 series chips worldwide would breach U. S.export controls, significantly affecting Huawei’s international expansion plans.

These developments highlight a pivotal moment in the tech landscape, reflecting the increasingly competitive nature of the semiconductor industry amidst geopolitical tensions.

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