The ongoing shortage of DRAM is projected to contribute to a decline in global smartphone chipset shipments by 7% in 2026, as reported by Counterpoint Research. However, MediaTek is anticipated to maintain its stature as the leading chipset manufacturer. In spite of the reduced shipment volumes, system-on-chip (SoC) revenue is expected to exhibit double-digit growth this year, with projections indicating that one in three smartphones sold in 2026 will be premium models. This trend is likely to favor industry giants Apple and Qualcomm, who are poised to gain significantly from increased high-end device sales.
Smartphone Chipset Market Trends for 2026: Decline in Shipments, but Revenue Growth Forecasted
As the industry moves towards the introduction of 2nm chipsets, key players such as MediaTek, Apple, and Qualcomm are expected to enhance their chip architectures. Innovations will include improvements in cache sizes, enabling these companies to launch their most advanced technologies to date. Notably, Samsung has already presented the world’s first 2nm Gate-All-Around (GAA) chipset, known as the Exynos 2600, designed to help the company recuperate from current market challenges.
Despite difficulties, especially for MediaTek—which derives over 50% of its revenue from SoC shipments—Counterpoint Research forecasts that the Taiwanese technology firm will maintain a substantial global market share of 34%, a slight decrease from 34.4% in 2025. The projected market share for major competitors is detailed below:
- MediaTek: 34.4% in 2025, forecasted to fall to 34% in 2026
- Qualcomm: 25.1% in 2025, expected to drop to 24.7% in 2026
- Apple: 18.3% in 2025, anticipated decrease to 18.1% in 2026
- Samsung: 11.2% in 2025, projected increase to 12.1% in 2026
Although both Apple and Qualcomm are also expected to face declines, they are better positioned due to the prevailing trend of ‘premiumization’ in the market. Consumers are increasingly willing to upgrade to higher-end devices, particularly iPhones or those featuring Snapdragon processors. While the DRAM shortage may affect the volume of chipset shipments, Counterpoint Research’s senior analyst, Soumen Mandal, notes that the rising memory prices will significantly bolster SoC revenue growth.
“Despite near-term shipment pressures, we expect the smartphone SoC market to deliver double-digit revenue growth in 2026. This growth will be driven by continued premiumization, higher memory prices, and the rapid adoption of AI-enabled features across smartphones.”
In a noteworthy development, Apple has reportedly secured more than half of the initial 2nm supply from TSMC for its upcoming A20 and A20 Pro models. Meanwhile, MediaTek has announced the successful tape-out of its own 2nm SoC, branded as the Dimensity 9600. Although the company is anticipated to continue utilizing ARM’s CPU designs in the short term, this strategy allows MediaTek to price its leading-edge silicon more attractively compared to Qualcomm. Given the increasing costs of DRAM and NAND flash, it is likely that several smartphone manufacturers will integrate the Dimensity 9600 into their flagship models in an effort to reduce overall component expenses.
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