Analyst Reports TSMC’s 2nm Trial Production Yields Exceed 60 Percent, Full-Scale Manufacturing Approaches as Company Aims to Increase Wafer Count

The future of TSMC’s ambitious endeavor to deliver its inaugural 2nm wafer shipments to key clients is steeped in uncertainty, largely hinging on the swift ramp-up of manufacturing yields. Recent reports indicate that the company’s trial production for this state-of-the-art technology has achieved a 60% yield—an important milestone that strengthens TSMC’s competitive edge in the semiconductor industry. However, one analyst suggests that since these figures were last reported, improvements in yields have likely been made, paving the way for full-scale production.

Yield Insights: Progress Beyond Initial Numbers

Although specific updated yield figures have not been disclosed, it’s noteworthy that TSMC’s reported 60% yield from three months ago serves as a baseline. The first anticipated customer for the upcoming 2nm wafers is none other than Apple. TF International Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo shared on X that the upcoming iPhone 18 series, expected to launch in the latter half of 2026, will be powered by a chipset utilizing this advanced lithography. Initially, GF Securities’ Jeff Pu forecasted that the new silicon, referred to as the A20, would be produced on TSMC’s existing 3nm ‘N3P’ node, though he has since aligned his predictions with Kuo’s insights.

While early indications suggested that not all models of the iPhone 18 would integrate Apple’s 2nm A-series System on Chip (SoC) due to escalating costs, it seems that this assumption was based on TSMC’s earlier yield progress. Given that the discussed 60% yields from the 2nm trial production were noted about three months ago, Kuo is optimistic that TSMC has not only maintained but potentially improved these yields to ensure viability for mass production. Current expectations hint that TSMC could produce approximately 50, 000 2nm wafers by the close of 2025.

Moreover, with the full operational capabilities of its facilities in Baoshan and Kaohsiung, TSMC’s production capacity could increase to around 80, 000 units. This projected output may sufficiently meet the demand for the next-gen 2nm process. In a bid to streamline operations and reduce costs, TSMC is also investigating methods to lower the expense of each wafer. A promising initiative, the ‘CyberShuttle’ service, is set to launch in April, enabling clients to test their chips on a single test wafer. This innovative approach may broaden TSMC’s customer base beyond Apple, thereby solidifying its position in the foundry market.

For continuous updates, refer to Ming-Chi Kuo.

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