On November 22, 2024, Universal Pictures premiered Wicked, the first installment of a long-anticipated film adaptation of the acclaimed Broadway musical, a project that has been in the works for over two decades. Following an extensive marketing campaign—one of the most memorable in recent film history outside of superhero blockbusters—the film quickly became a cultural sensation, earning near-universal acclaim and grossing approximately $700 million, establishing itself as a formidable contender in the upcoming Oscar season.
Fast-forward to December 31, 2024, when Universal Pictures made Wicked available for rental and purchase through digital platforms, just a little over a month after the film’s theatrical release in the United States. While some may view this move as a savvy business strategy designed to leverage holiday viewing trends, it also raises questions about the perception of film value in an era where studios often prioritize immediate digital distribution over sustaining box office success.
A Troubling Practice
As the 2010s drew to a close, film studio executives faced significant decisions amid the rise of streaming services. The success of platforms like Netflix and Amazon created a rush among major studios to establish their own streaming services, resulting in the birth of outlets such as Disney+, Max, Paramount+, and Peacock. The convenience of streaming rapidly became the preferred method for audiences seeking home entertainment, with sales of physical media steadily declining year after year.
The trend towards shortening the theatrical-to-home viewing window was already evident before the pandemic, but the ensuing crisis in 2020 propelled studios to make swifter moves towards digital availability. Even when theaters began reopening in 2021, this window shrank dramatically—sometimes to just a month or less. A notable example of this trend was Warner Bros. Pictures’ decision to release its entire 2021 film slate on HBO Max the same day as their theatrical launches, which drew significant backlash from filmmakers like Christopher Nolan, who subsequently left the studio.
Wicked’s Box Office Legs
Upon its release, Wicked achieved remarkable box office success. Competing against Paramount Pictures’ Gladiator II, it opened to an impressive $114 million domestically during its debut weekend. The film faced stiff competition from Disney’s Moana 2 the following weekend, which debuted at the #1 spot. Nevertheless, Wicked garnered an additional $80 million in its second weekend and achieved a staggering $117.5 million during the five-day Thanksgiving holiday, marking a mere 29% drop from its opening. Impressively, it holds the record for the highest-grossing second weekend for a film that did not secure the top spot.
This persistence at the box office amidst competition underscores the effectiveness of Universal’s marketing strategy, combined with strong positive word-of-mouth. With an approval rating of 88% from critics on Rotten Tomatoes and a solid A grade from CinemaScore audiences, the film’s narrative centering on Elphaba and Glinda’s powerful friendship has clearly resonated with viewers, many of whom have revisited the film multiple times since its launch. Special sing-along showings have further amplified interest.
Universal’s Big Mistake
Despite the overwhelming success of Wicked, Universal’s decision to release the film digitally just one month after its theatrical debut casts doubt on its understanding of modern film distribution strategies. Such a move reflects a broader trend among studios to devalue their blockbuster films and diminish the theatrical experience by conditioning audiences to wait for digital availability, rather than actively pursuing them to local theaters.
This trend isn’t isolated to Wicked. Other major Universal releases in 2024, including The Fall Guy and Twisters, also transitioned to digital formats shortly after hitting theaters. Notably, their flagship release, Despicable Me 4, hit digital platforms over two months after its theatrical debut. While Universal might believe they’ve made a strategic move with Wicked, this approach could undermine long-term box office health and ticket sales.
Follow Christopher Nolan’s Lead
In contrast to Universal’s approach, Christopher Nolan’s recent collaboration with the studio highlights the value of theatrical exclusivity. After parting ways with Warner Bros., Nolan insisted on a theatrical window of 90 to 120 days for his film Oppenheimer. His strong advocacy for the cinema experience was evident in the marketing, which emphasized viewing the film in IMAX 70mm format, prompting audiences to seek out theaters for an authentic experience.
Oppenheimer emerged as a box office triumph, bolstered not only by the viral “Barbenheimer”phenomenon but also by its artistic merit, which Nolan championed. The film grossed an astonishing $977 million, becoming the highest-grossing biopic and the third highest-grossing R-rated film to date, with a significant portion—$190 million—coming from IMAX screenings alone.
Theatrical, Just Like the Original Musical
Ultimately, the early digital release of Wicked mirrors concerning industry trends toward diminishing theatrical windows. Given the film’s enormous cultural impact and potential as a contender in prestigious award circuits, a longer theatrical exclusivity could have strengthened its legacy. Viewing a cinematic adaptation of a celebrated Broadway musical in a packed theater is essential for capturing the spirit of the original production. Positioned to release Wicked: For Good later this year, Universal Pictures has the opportunity to harness a different distribution strategy, possibly drawing from Nolan’s successful model—one that empowered Oppenheimer to achieve both commercial success and critical acclaim.
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