Why the Upcoming Apple iPhone Super Upgrade Cycle is Inevitable: 2 Key Facts

Anticipation is brewing for a major upgrade cycle among Apple iPhone users, primarily driven by two compelling observations from CLSA analyst Bhavtosh Vajpayee. These insights highlight the aging iPhone user base and the resulting motivation to transition to more modern devices.

Fact #1: Approximately 150 Million iPhones Are Unable to Upgrade

A significant portion of Apple’s user base—in fact, around 150 million iPhones worldwide—are currently incompatible with the latest version of iOS, known as iOS 26. Notably, models such as the iPhone XS and XR do not support this update, leaving roughly 10% of all iPhone users without access to the latest features and enhancements offered by Apple.

On average, these devices are about 6.5 years old, indicating a significant gap in technological advancement and reinforcing the likelihood of a soon-to-happen upgrade cycle.

Fact #2: Around 975 Million iPhones Lack Access to Apple Intelligence

Device requirements list for Apple products, including iPhone 15 Pro, iPhone 16, iPad mini A17 Pro, Mac M1, and Apple Vision Pro. — Apple Intelligence Device Compatibility

Apple’s innovative AI platform, known as Apple Intelligence, is currently exclusive to the iPhone 15 Pro and newer models. This restriction means that about 65% of existing iPhones—a staggering 975 million devices—are currently unable to utilize these advanced AI features. This estimate includes anticipated sales from the forthcoming iPhone 17 lineup.

If we exclude projected sales, approximately 78% of the entire iPhone user base—amounting to around 1.17 billion units—would lack access to these intelligent functions, highlighting a substantial opportunity for upgrades.

2026: A Pivotal Year for Apple

Given these factors, it appears that 2026 may mark a crucial moment for Apple, potentially sparking the long-awaited upgrade cycle. The company is reportedly preparing to unveil an impressive lineup of six different iPhone models next year, including the iPhone 17e, the standard iPhone 18, variants such as Air, Pro, and Pro Max, and a revolutionary foldable iPhone.

In recent discussions, it has been noted that Apple is targeting a 10% increase in smartphone shipments for 2026, aiming to capitalize on the expected demand generated by the introduction of its new foldable model.

For some context, Apple recorded the shipment of 232 million iPhones in 2024. Furthermore, IDC projects a 4% growth in shipments for 2025, leading to an anticipated total of about 241 million units. Aiming for a 10% increase from the 2025 figures suggests an approximate shipment target of 265 million units for the year following.

Beyond hardware upgrades, Apple is also rumored to be developing AI smart glasses, intended to compete with Meta’s existing dominance in this area. These glasses are expected to debut in 2026, further enriching Apple’s ecosystem.

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