Wall Street Divided on Apple: Oppenheimer Forecasts Short-Term Security from Smart Glasses; UBS Reports iPhone 17 Demand Declining After Launch

According to recent analysis from Oppenheimer, Meta’s Ray-Ban Display glasses do not pose an immediate threat to Apple’s existing market dominance. Further insights from UBS indicate that the initial demand for the iPhone 17 is subsiding, with reduced wait times observed in the launch week. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley projects an optimistic scenario predicting Apple will ship as many as 270 million iPhone units by 2026.

Key Insights

Recent Developments: A plethora of analyst reports emerged today. Oppenheimer evaluates that Meta’s Ray-Ban Display glasses are not currently a substantial threat to Apple’s hardware ecosystem. UBS Evidence Lab data shows that the initial excitement for the iPhone 17 has peaked, as evidenced by shorter wait times, while Morgan Stanley’s bullish forecast suggests approximately 270 million iPhone shipments could occur by 2026.
Significance: In the short term, Apple’s primary hardware remains largely insulated from the current enthusiasm surrounding smart glasses. The market momentum for the iPhone 17 appears to be stabilizing post-launch, with long-term predictions remaining positive, albeit highly dependent on various market assumptions.

Oppenheimer’s Perspective: No Immediate Threat from Smart Glasses

Following hands-on testing of Meta’s Ray-Ban Display in New York City, Oppenheimer analyst Martin Yang described the experience as innovative but not yet suitable for everyday use due to issues such as eye strain and clarity challenges.

Yang’s Conclusion: He believes it is premature to categorize the Ray-Ban Display as a viable competitor to Apple’s established products, such as the Apple Watch. This positions Apple’s hardware landscape as secure for the foreseeable future—approximately 2-3 years—while Meta refines its technology.

Technology Details: The Ray-Ban Display features an in-frame screen for information viewing and utilizes the Meta Neural Band EMG for gesture-based navigation.

Apple’s Hardware Strategy: Reports suggest that Apple has paused development on a premium version of the Vision Pro (codenamed N100) to concentrate on AI-enhanced smart glasses anticipated for release in 2026. These would incorporate cameras, microphones, and speakers while enhancing Siri capabilities, albeit without an integrated AR display (treat as a rumor until verified by Apple).

UBS Data Indicates Declining Demand Post-Launch

Base iPhone 17: Peak demand has passed.
iPhone 17 Air: Reduced interest is suggested by decreased wait times, despite its thinner design and moderate specifications.
iPhone 17 Pro: Wait times are also shortening, with figures reflecting approximately 13 days in China, a minor increase from the previous year but a decrease from a week prior.

Morgan Stanley’s Optimistic Forecast: They forecast an ambitious target of 270 million iPhone units by 2026, driven by multiple launches throughout the year, including the iPhone 17e, a new base iPhone 18, various Air/Pro/Pro Max models, and a foldable variant. This scenario is speculative and not a formal guidance.

Uncertainties Ahead

The specific timeline and feature set for Apple’s smart glasses.
Real-world performance of the Ray-Ban Display outside of controlled demonstrations.
Actual sell-through rates of the iPhone 17 relative to current wait-time indicators.
Assumptions behind the 270 million shipment prediction, particularly regarding supply, pricing, and regional factors.

Future Outlook

Anticipate Apple’s guidance for the upcoming holiday quarter, especially concerning wearables.
Monitor iPhone 17 lead times through mid-October for indications of normalized demand.
Keep an eye on developer or test builds for emerging frameworks related to glasses or potential Siri enhancements.

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