This article is not to be considered investment advice. The author does not hold any positions in the stocks discussed herein.
The Current State of Tesla Shares
As of now, Tesla’s stock has experienced a significant downturn, declining approximately 51% from its peak closing price of $479.86 on December 17, 2024. This sharp drop has prompted investors and analysts to speculate about where the stock might find its lowest point. Recently, a prominent expert in the Tesla domain has suggested that the stock may have reached its nadir just last week.
I continue to believe $TSLA bottomed last week. The reduction in TSLA 1Q and FY’25 deliv ests is likely now discounted. Most investors realize that the absence of new refreshed Model Ys was the major reason for the 1Q delivery estimate decline rather than Elon’s politics and… pic.twitter.com/7x2R8ZFCOi
— Gary Black (@garyblack00) March 18, 2025
Expert Insights on Tesla’s Performance
Gary Black, from Future Fund, expresses confidence that Tesla’s shares have reached a cyclical low, pointing to data from Bloomberg that shows Tesla’s U. S.sales have maintained their historical trend, despite surrounding controversies related to Elon Musk’s political involvements.
Ouch! JP Morgan expects $TSLA to report its worst quarterly deliveries in three years:
“We struggle to think of anything analogous in the history of the automotive industry in which a brand has lost so much value so quickly.”pic.twitter.com/1yxKoIc0X4
— Markets & Mayhem (@Mayhem4Markets) March 17, 2025
Forecasts and Market Reactions
As we await Tesla’s quarterly delivery results, JP Morgan anticipates a notably weak performance, predicting the company may record its lowest deliveries in three years. Factors contributing to this downturn include:
- Limited inventory for the Model Y Juniper.
- Delays in customer purchases.
- Damage to brand perception attributed to political controversies.
- Skepticism surrounding the upcoming more affordable hatchback model.
- Increasing competition in the autonomous driving sector from Chinese automakers.
- Concerns regarding the company’s current valuation.
$TSLA bulls no longer criticizing us for taking some $TSLA profits off the table at $350 after the election. While we are sometimes overly disciplined, $TSLA ‘s mid-November forward P/E of 120x made no sense unless one assumed TSLA long-term earnings growth of 60%+ per year (2x… pic.twitter.com/br4ORRR3ze
— Gary Black (@garyblack00) March 18, 2025
Looking Ahead: Analyst Perspectives
Despite the anticipated quarterly challenges, Black argues that a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 70-75x, based on a long-term earnings growth forecast of 35%, is warranted. This contrasts with the current P/E ratio of approximately 81x.
In a contrasting view, Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Andres Sheppard maintains a bullish outlook, projecting a target share price of $425 with an ‘Overweight’ rating. Sheppard highlights that Tesla’s current stock price offers an appealing entry point as the company is poised for significant upcoming catalysts.
“We become bullish on TSLA ahead of material catalysts including: the introduction of the Robotaxi segment (June 2025), the rollout of FSD in China (started in 1Q25), rollout of FSD in Europe (expected in 1H25 pending regulatory approval), a lower-priced vehicle introduction in 1H25 with an initial price around $30, 000 (including tax credit), high-volume production of Optimus Bot (2026), initial deliveries of Optimus by late 2026, and the introduction of the Semi Truck (expected SOP in 2H25/2026).”
Challenges and Future Outlook
Sheppard does caution that Tesla’s upcoming first-quarter deliveries are likely to be disappointing due to weak sales in Europe and a competitive market in China—accounting for approximately 21% of the company’s total revenue in FY 2024. Furthermore, factors such as potential tariffs and adjustments in EV tax incentives could also affect delivery metrics.
In conclusion, Sheppard emphasizes:
“We foresee revenue growth potential from FSD, Robotaxi, Energy Storage & Deployment, and Optimus Bots, which are foundational to TSLA’s long-term investment thesis.”
Investor Sentiment and Leadership Concerns
Notably, Ross Gerber, an early Tesla investor, has publicly called for Elon Musk to step down as CEO, accusing him of damaging the brand’s reputation. It is worth mentioning that Gerber’s wealth management firm currently holds about 260, 000 shares of Tesla.
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