This article does not constitute investment advice. The author holds no positions in any of the stocks mentioned.
Tesla’s Recent Rally: Factors at Play
Tesla’s share price has seen notable increases recently, largely fueled by optimistic expectations surrounding a more favorable regulatory climate for autonomous driving. Elon Musk is poised to leverage his influence within the incoming administration to potentially benefit Tesla’s operational landscape. Additionally, Musk is generating excitement around Tesla’s humanoid robot, known as Optimus. However, it’s important to recognize that Tesla’s automotive sector continues to face significant challenges, although these pressures are beginning to ease.
Tesla will report 24Q4 deliveries tomorrow, January 2nd at 3pm CET. Half an hour before the US market opens.
Deliveries are estimated to be between 498 and 510.4k. The IR-compiled analyst consensus is at 506,763. pic.twitter.com/XYulqyZvEV
— Roland Pircher (@piloly) January 1, 2025
Q4 2024: Delivery Expectations
Looking ahead to the delivery numbers for the fourth quarter, initial estimates compiled by Tesla’s Investor Relations suggest that Wall Street analysts anticipated approximately 506,763 units delivered in Q4 2024. Meanwhile, Bloomberg’s aggregate estimates indicate a slightly higher expectation of around 512,000 units.
In its previous earnings report for the third quarter of 2024, Tesla projected “slight growth in vehicle deliveries for 2024.”Notably, to meet its total deliveries of 1.81 million units for 2023, Tesla needed to deliver 516,344 units in Q4 2024.
Q4 2024 Deliveries Reported
Tesla has just announced that it successfully delivered 495,570 units in Q4 2024, which comes against a production figure of 459,445 units. For context, in the third quarter of the previous year, Tesla recorded 462,890 deliveries on a production count of 469,796 vehicles.
Breaking this down further, deliveries included 471,930 units of the Model 3/Y series and 23,640 units comprising various models, including the Cybertruck.
Annual Delivery Performance
Throughout 2024, Tesla delivered a total of 1,789,226 electric vehicles, which unfortunately did not meet its target to surpass the previous year’s deliveries of 1.81 million units.
At the close of Q3 2024, Tesla reported a Days of Finished Goods Inventory (often referred to as global vehicle inventory days of supply) of 19 days, based on an inventory level of 113,455 units and a daily delivery rate of approximately 6,172 vehicles. In comparison, the Q4 2024 inventory metric saw a decline, registering at 11.70 days, derived from a new inventory level of 77,330 units and an average daily delivery rate of 6,608 vehicles.
$TSLA -15% in two weeks vs NDX -4%. Nothing has fundamentally changed for $TSLA. This decline is mostly beta and other high P/E names have been hit disproportionately. The two key risks for TSLA are 1/ potential loss of the $7,500 EV credit, which hurts TSLA more than GM and… pic.twitter.com/8rosMyM24i
— Gary Black (@garyblack00) December 31, 2024
Future Outlook for Tesla
As we look towards 2025, the performance of Tesla’s core automotive business will likely hinge on the anticipated elimination of the $7,500 federal EV tax credit and the market’s response to the much-anticipated Model Q hatchback.
For further information, you can read the full report from the source here.
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