Tesla Q2 2025 Deliveries Better Than Expected, Surging Inventory Levels

This is not investment advice. The author holds no positions in the stocks discussed.

In recent days, significant developments have unfolded within Tesla’s operational landscape. Elon Musk took decisive action by terminating Omead Afshsar, the head of operations for North America and Europe. Concurrently, he has reignited his critique of former President Trump’s ‘Big, Beautiful Bill, ’ which has drawn sharp responses from Trump himself. Now, Musk appears determined to personally manage Tesla’s sales challenges in the U. S.and EU, according to a report by Bloomberg.

However, Musk’s intervention may come too late to positively impact Tesla’s overall delivery figures for the recently concluded quarter. Ahead of a key announcement today, JP Morgan revealed in an investment note their expectations for Tesla’s delivery numbers, now anticipating around 360, 000 units—substantially lower than the anticipated 392, 000 units.

Here are my final Tesla delivery estimates for this quarter. I’m aiming for a lower error rate than my 3.0% average over the last 12 quarters. Tesla Delivery Estimates for Q2 2025: • My estimate: 356, 000 • Analyst consensus: 385, 086 • Q2 2024 deliveries: 443, 956 The analyst… pic.twitter.com/rRtBPGSHly

— Troy Teslike (@TroyTeslike) June 30, 2025

Before we review the delivery data for Q2 2025, it’s important to highlight Troy Teslike’s insights. Known for his accurate predictions regarding Tesla’s quarterly deliveries, he predicted approximately 356, 000 sales this quarter, versus a consensus forecast of 385, 086 units from Wall Street analysts.

Tesla Reports 384, 122 Deliveries in Q2 2025

Tesla has just announced it delivered 384, 122 units in Q2 2025, against a production total of 410, 244 units. For context, the company delivered 336, 681 units in Q1 2025 with a production capacity of 362, 615 units.

Breaking this down further, the output included 373, 728 units of Model 3/Y and an additional 10, 394 units across other models such as the Cybertruck.

Additionally, Tesla’s Days of Finished Goods Inventory—a measure indicating global vehicle inventory days of supply—increased from 23 at the end of Q1 2025 to 25.26 at the close of Q2 2025. This change reflects a new inventory level of 129, 386 units, alongside an average daily delivery rate of 5, 121.63 vehicles.

In the midst of these operational changes, it’s worth noting that the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) has reached out to Tesla following reports of robotaxis involved in various traffic violations, including lapses in lane discipline and speed limit adherence, as showcased in several recent videos.

For a comparative perspective, Waymo has reported fewer critical errors than Tesla recently, despite having only 11 robotaxis in operation within a designated area in Austin. Unlike Tesla’s autonomous vehicles, Waymo’s fleet is consistently monitored by an employee seated in the front passenger seat, supported by a team of teleoperators prepared to intervene in emergencies.

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