TD Cowen Refutes iPhone Air Production Cuts, Jefferies Reports “Nearly Zero” Lead Times in China

What should consumers and investors make of the ongoing discord among analysts regarding the Apple iPhone Air? This situation has been exemplified recently, as some analysts maintain a positive outlook on demand for the device, while others express dire forecasts about its future prospects.

Conflicting Opinions on Production Cadence of the iPhone Air

A recent report from TD Cowen suggests that Apple is not planning to alter its production cadence for the iPhone Air. The firm asserts this based on “field work”insights, projecting continued production levels that include 3 million units in Q3 2025 and 7 million in Q4 2025.

This claim stands in stark contrast to KeyBanc Capital’s findings from the previous week, which indicated “virtually no demand for the iPhone Air“and a limited consumer interest in foldable models.

Additionally, a report from Nikkei Asia corroborated KeyBanc’s assessment, claiming that Apple plans to curtail production of the iPhone Air while simultaneously increasing orders for the other models in the iPhone 17 series. Notably, prominent analyst Ming-Chi Kuo also reported that suppliers for the iPhone Air might cut production by over 80 percent.

Jefferies Reports Recovery in iPhone Demand in China

$AAPL – JEFFERIES: IPHONE DEMAND PICKING UP IN CHINA. Jefferies analyst Edison Lee says iPhone demand in China is recovering, with lead times for iPhone 17 and 17 Air nearly zero. Early shipment data shows 19% year-over-year unit growth, challenging previous negative outlooks.…

— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) October 27, 2025

Adding to the analytical confusion, Jefferies has reported “nearly zero”lead times for the iPhone Air in China, indicating a recovery in demand. They also noted that the wait for the iPhone 17 Pro has “almost disappeared.”This is a significant change, as the analyst claims that “[iPhone] growth in China has accelerated.”

According to Jefferies, "For the first five weeks since iPhone 17 shipment started [in China], total iPhone unit growth reached 19% year over year." This marks a notable recovery as compared to previous negative forecasts.

The swift reduction in lead times for the iPhone Air could signal changing consumer preferences. Initially regarded as a popular choice within China, especially due to its unique eSIM-only feature, the sharp decline raises concerns about the model’s sustainability in the market.

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