Supply Chain Insights: Qualcomm and MediaTek’s Shift to Samsung Foundry for 2nm Chip Orders Unlikely Due to Timing Issues

Understanding Our Rumor Rating System

0-20%: Unlikely – Unsupported by credible sources 21-40%: Questionable – Some doubts persist 41-60%: Plausible – Contains reasonable evidence 61-80%: Probable – Supported by strong evidence 81-100%: Highly Likely – Backed by multiple reliable sources

Current Rumor Assessment Probability: 65%

Source Credibility: 3/5 Corroboration: 2/5 Technical Viability: 4/5 Timeline Feasibility: 4/5

Recent reports from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) suggest that a 2nm chip wafer could cost approximately $30, 000. This pricing has led Qualcomm and MediaTek to explore Samsung as an alternative supplier, raising questions regarding their dependence on TSMC. Initially, the idea appeared practical for these System on Chip (SoC) manufacturers. However, supply chain insiders cast doubt on this potential shift, citing current circumstances as obstacles.

Wafer Cost Acceptability and Manufacturer Stability

According to anonymous sources, DigiTimes asserts that TSMC’s 2nm wafer prices have stabilized to a level that Qualcomm and MediaTek find acceptable. If costs had remained prohibitive, these companies might have opted to wait a full year before transitioning to the advanced lithography offered by Samsung. The timeline for this transition appears constrained, as the first chip using Samsung’s 2nm GAA technology is only expected to debut in 2027, not 2025.

Design sources within the integrated circuit (IC) industry express skepticism regarding these rumors, noting that next-generation SoCs are typically finalized well in advance. MediaTek recently confirmed the successful tape-out of its 2nm silicon, intended for late 2026 release, yet the foundry partner remains undisclosed, leaving room for speculation.

Qualcomm and MediaTek’s Strategy Amidst Rising Costs

Regarding TSMC’s pricing strategies, reports assert that Qualcomm and MediaTek are determined to maintain technological parity with Apple as costs appear manageable. Despite having the option to fall a generation behind, these companies appear inclined to continue their partnership with TSMC, on the belief that recent cost increases may not be as alarming as anticipated.

The only instance in which Qualcomm and MediaTek lagged behind Apple in the lithography landscape was during the launch of the Snapdragon 8 Gen 3 and Dimensity 9300, which utilized TSMC’s initial 3nm process, known as N3B. To provide context, Apple’s tape-out expenses for their M3 series on this process reportedly reached $1 billion, highlighting the immense financial commitment required for cutting-edge chip production.

Potential Dual-Sourcing Strategy for the Future

As we analyze current manufacturing cost estimates, the Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 5 has a projected production cost of $280, while the Dimensity 9500 is estimated at up to $200. Should MediaTek manage to price the upcoming Dimensity 9600 under $300, the Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 6 may exceed that threshold due to TSMC’s pricing structure.

Notably, Qualcomm is still seeking samples of the 2nm GAA iteration of the Snapdragon 8 Elite Gen 5 from Samsung, prompting questions about their ongoing relationship. This could signal the beginning of a dual-sourcing strategy that may materialize in future years.

While it’s essential to approach these claims with caution, the tendency of South Korean media to exaggerate potential business agreements must also be considered. Rumors often have a way of gaining traction, regardless of their validity. If Qualcomm and MediaTek decide against placing immediate 2nm orders with Samsung, it’s likely they will closely monitor Samsung’s advancements in 2nm GAA technology and the performance of the Exynos 2600. Positive results could expedite a partnership.

For more information, visit the source: DigiTimes