Super Micro Computer (SMCI) Faces $1 Billion Revenue Delay as Customers Assess New Blackwell-Based Solutions

This article is not intended as investment advice. The author does not hold any positions in the stocks mentioned herein.

Super Micro Computer’s Fiscal Q3 Results: A Mixed Bag

On Tuesday, Super Micro Computer (NASDAQ: SMCI) unveiled its earnings for fiscal Q3 2025. While the results largely aligned with the company’s significantly lowered expectations, the projected performance for the upcoming quarter—along with a lack of reaffirmation on the previously indicated FY 2026 revenue goal of $40 billion—has understandably affected market sentiment around this once high-flying stock.

Current Market Position and Offering Overview

Super Micro Computer stands as a prominent player in the GPU-as-a-Service sector, particularly known for its innovative liquid-cooled AI rack solutions. Just weeks ago, analysts largely considered SMCI a standout performer in hardware, eclipsing the growth seen by well-known AI leader NVIDIA.

Q3 Earnings Insights

Despite being in a strong position, Super Micro Computer’s recent financial performance fell short of optimistic projections. The company recorded a revenue of $4.6 billion for fiscal Q3 2025, meeting its own guidance but missing Wall Street analysts’ aggregate forecast of $5.05 billion.

Reduced Forward Guidance

More concerning was the outlook presented by Super Micro Computer. The firm anticipates Q4 2025 revenues between $5.6 billion and $6.4 billion, a figure that is lower than the consensus estimate of $6.81 billion. Furthermore, the total anticipated FY 2025 revenue is projected to be in the range of $21.8 billion to $22.6 billion, which is a significant drop from the consensus estimate of $23.5 billion.

Compounding these challenges, Super Micro has opted not to reaffirm its former FY 2026 revenue forecast of $40 billion, citing uncertainties around tariffs and regulations impacting AI deployment.

Analyst Reactions and Price Target Adjustments

The current sentiment appears to be cautious. Citi has recently revised its price target for Super Micro Computer shares to $37, reflecting concerns about delayed revenue and the implications of customer hesitations over the next-gen GPUs. These delays could intensify existing competitive dynamics and contribute to uncertainty in GPU allocation.

A Glimmer of Optimism from Management

Despite these headwinds, Citi acknowledged a silver lining, noting:

“Management sounds optimistic on revenue trajectory ahead given robust order momentum QTD, GPU technology transition (which typically sees higher level of customization and better margins), next generation DLC (expected to double in volume) solutions and manufacturing ramp in Malaysia.”

Revenue Realization Delays

In a similar vein, analyst Kevin Cassidy from Rosenblatt pointed out expected delays in revenue realization of approximately $1 billion, which are largely attributed to customer evaluations of the new NVIDIA Blackwell GPU offerings. Cassidy predicts this expected revenue from the March quarter will shift to the following June and September quarters.

Bullish Perspectives Despite Challenges

Interestingly, Needham analyst N. Quinn Bolton has taken a decidedly bullish position on Super Micro Computer, stating:

“We find the valuation to be extremely attractive for a company targeting AI/HPC end markets and at the forefront of liquid-cooled data centers.”

Current Stock Performance

As of the latest trading reports, Super Micro Computer shares have dipped by 6 percent in pre-market activity. Nevertheless, the stock remains up roughly 10 percent year-to-date, signaling ongoing confidence from some investors despite the recent challenges.

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