Smartphone Market Recovery After Two-Year Decline: Apple Missed the Opportunity

The Global Smartphone Market: A Resilient Comeback

Recent insights from the International Data Corporation (IDC) indicate a resilient recovery in the global smartphone market, marking a significant turnaround after two consecutive years of decline influenced by the pandemic. A notable trend is the impressive growth seen in low-cost Android smartphones, while Apple’s iPhone sales have struggled to ride this wave of resurgence.

Projected Growth Ahead

Looking forward, IDC estimates that smartphone manufacturers are set to ship approximately 1.24 billion devices in 2024, reflecting a 6.2% increase from the previous year. This growth is largely attributed to consumers seeking device upgrades. However, predictions suggest a deceleration in growth rates post-2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of just 2.6% anticipated from 2023 to 2028. Factors contributing to this slowdown include heightened smartphone penetration, protracted refresh cycles, and challenges posed by the burgeoning market for used smartphones.

Operating System Insights

In terms of operating systems, Android has exhibited a robust year-over-year growth rate of 7.6%. The majority of sales are concentrated in affordable and low-end Android devices, specifically in regions such as the Asia-Pacific (excluding Japan and China), Latin America, the Middle East, and Africa, as well as China.

Conversely, iOS is projected to experience minimal growth at only 0.4% in 2024. While Apple is making strides in markets like India, it continues to face formidable challenges in larger markets such as China, Europe, and the United States. However, IDC forecasts a recovery with a projected 3.1% growth for iOS in 2025.

The Role of Generative AI

Despite the industry’s heightened attention towards artificial intelligence, IDC asserts that generative AI has yet to significantly influence smartphone demand. The organization emphasizes that manufacturers must enhance consumer awareness of generative AI and integrate more crucial AI features into their devices to stimulate interest in AI-powered smartphones.

IDC further posits, “In the near future, we expect GenAI smartphones to occupy premium flagship categories and gradually extend to lower price tiers, potentially capturing 70% of the smartphone market by 2028.”

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