The recent announcement of the 2025 SAG Awards nominations, which followed the conclusion of the 82nd Golden Globe Awards, has initiated discussions surrounding the upcoming Oscar race. While the Golden Globes presented a mix of surprises and omissions, some results were anticipated. Notably, Adrien Brody’s win for Best Actor in a Drama for The Brutalist and Zoe Saldaña’s Best Supporting Actress victory in a Musical or Comedy for Emilia Pérez stood out as expected outcomes.
The SAG Awards typically serve as a more reliable predictor for the Oscars compared to the Golden Globes, especially in the Supporting Actor category. The 31st Annual SAG Awards are scheduled for Sunday, February 23, 2025, at the Shrine Auditorium and Expo Hall in Los Angeles. For the second consecutive year, the event will be available for live streaming on Netflix at 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT. With Wicked leading the SAG nominations with five nods, following a Best Box Office & Cinematic Achievement win at the Golden Globes, the competition appears fierce.
Implications of SAG Nominations for the Oscars 2025 Best Picture Race
Wicked’s Position for a Best Picture Nomination After Golden Globes Setback
Wicked leading with the most SAG nominations marks a robust indicator of its potential Oscar success, particularly for the Best Picture category and several acting nominations. One category to monitor closely is the Best Cast in a Motion Picture award, which has often predicted the eventual Best Picture winner, recognized in four out of the last five years (including films like Oppenheimer and Everything Everywhere All at Once). The other contenders in this category include A Complete Unknown, Anora, Conclave, and Emilia Pérez, all strong candidates for Best Picture recognition as well.
Although The Brutalist received limited attention at the SAG Awards, securing only a nomination for Brody’s performance, its victory for Best Picture Drama and Best Director at the Golden Globes suggests it’ll receive an Oscar nod. This leaves room for roughly four additional films to compete for Best Picture nominations, potentially marking a significant year for cinematic achievements.
Demi Moore’s acclaimed performance in The Substance enhances its Oscar prospects following her SAG nomination. Likewise, Colman Domingo’s work in Sing Sing, despite missing a Best Cast nomination, continues to draw attention and should remain in the Oscars conversation. Further fueling this discussion is Jesse Eisenberg’s A Real Pain, which could benefit from Culkin’s momentum following his Golden Globe win. Finally, Dune: Part Two, bolstered by its predecessor’s strong Oscars performance, is likely to secure the final Best Picture nomination.
Analyzing the SAG Nominations for the Oscars 2025 Best Actor Race
Strong Position for Adrien Brody
The nominees for Best Actor include Adrien Brody (The Brutalist), Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown), Ralph Fiennes (Conclave), and Colman Domingo (Sing Sing), all of whom have solid odds for Oscar nominations. Daniel Craig’s fifth and final nomination spot could be contested by Sebastian Stan, who is likely to gain favor through his praised performance in A Different Man, rather than as Donald Trump in The Apprentice.
In terms of the Golden Globe nominees for Best Actor in a Musical or Comedy, notable mentions include Jesse Eisenberg (A Real Pain) and Hugh Grant (Heretic), but they seem less likely to claim that coveted Oscar spot. Historically, the SAG Awards and Oscars have matched all five Best Actor nominees only nine times, signaling that while three nominations in recent years is a good precedent, Craig could secure a nomination despite Stan’s noteworthy performance.
Exploring the SAG Nominations Impact on the Oscars 2025 Best Actress Race
Strong Contenders: Moore, Madison, and Erivo
The Best Actress nominees this year are Demi Moore (The Substance), Cynthia Erivo (Wicked), Mikey Madison (Anora), Pamela Anderson (The Last Showgirl), and Karla Sofía Gascón (Emilia Pérez). Notably, if Gascón is nominated, she would make history as the first openly trans actor to receive an Oscar nomination. Despite some controversy regarding the film’s narrative, her accolades from both the Golden Globes and SAG Awards indicate strong Oscar potential.
The competition is heating up, particularly between Moore and Madison, although Erivo’s recognition at the SAG Awards adds another layer to the contest. Other potential nominees include Fernanda Torres, whose performance in I’m Still Here has garnered critical acclaim and could influence the nomination landscape alongside established names like Angelina Jolie and Nicole Kidman, who are also vying for that final spot. Historically, the SAG Awards and the Oscars have only aligned all five Best Actress nominees seven times, with the last occurrence in 2009.
The SAG Nominations’ Implications for the Oscars 2025 Best Supporting Actor Race
Prospects for Denzel Washington
Kieran Culkin’s unexpected Golden Globe win over Denzel Washington has positioned him as a frontrunner for Best Supporting Actor. However, Washington’s absence from the SAG nominees, which include Culkin, Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice), Jonathan Bailey (Wicked), Tura Borisov (Anora), and Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), casts doubt on his Oscar prospects. While Washington may still claim a nomination, recent performances by Guy Pearce in The Brutalist provide formidable competition.
Edward Norton, representing A Complete Unknown, sees his chances bolstered by the film’s overall acclaim and its SAG nominations. If Brody wins Best Actor, Norton could achieve greater visibility. Nonetheless, with the SAG Award historically correlating with Oscar wins, particularly from 2016 onwards, Culkin’s chances grow increasingly optimistic, marking a significant turn in the race.
Examining the SAG Nominations Impact on the Oscars 2025 Best Supporting Actress Race
The Tight Race: Grande vs. Saldana
The most intriguing nomination for Best Supporting Actress is Jamie Lee Curtis for her role in The Last Showgirl. Despite her recent Oscar success, she faces tough competition from Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez) and Ariana Grande (Wicked), both strong contenders following their recent performances. Other nominees, such as Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown) and Daniell Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson), while commendable, are somewhat unexpected entries in this competitive field.
Notably absent from this list is Felicity Jones from The Brutalist, while Selena Gomez’s lack of nomination at the SAG Awards diminishes her Oscar chances despite her recognized talent. However, she remains a strong candidate for a Best Original Song nomination for “Mi Camino.”Meanwhile, Isabella Rossellini (Conclave) adds to the competitive landscape, even as Saldaña’s victory at the Golden Globes positions her as a frontrunner.
Statistically, five out of eight Golden Globe winners have subsequently won the Supporting Actress Oscar. Additionally, 14 of the last 15 SAG Award winners in this category have also clinched the Oscar, making Saldaña a powerful competitor yet again this season. Should she continue her winning streak, she is poised to take home her first Oscar award come March.
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