Projected Increase in iPhone 17 Prices Linked to Tariff Challenges and Slowing U.S. Smartphone Market Growth at 1.9 Percent, Down from 4.2 Percent Forecast

With the highly anticipated launch of the iPhone 17 lineup just around the corner, expected in three months, buzz around potential price increases is intensifying. Amid ongoing discussions about tariff implications, analysts predict that Apple may raise the prices of its upcoming iPhone models. Recent insights from Counterpoint indicate that sales of iPhones in the United States may decline year-over-year, primarily due to the anticipated surge in product pricing.

Tariff Challenges Prompt Price Increases for Upcoming iPhones

According to Counterpoint Research, consumers might face increased prices for the iPhone 17 lineup as Apple looks to pass on some of the tariff-related costs. While it is possible that a portion of these costs will be absorbed by the company, the forecast suggests a rise in prices above those of current models, though still potentially lower than the full extent of the actual cost increases.

Counterpoint initially projected a global smartphone market growth of 4.2% for this year. However, given the significant impact of U. S.tariffs on production and import expenses, this growth forecast has been adjusted to a modest 1.9%.In the U. S.market specifically, both Apple and Samsung are expected to experience lower sales compared to the previous year due to the anticipated price increases driven by tariffs.

Counterpoint Research has revised down its 2025 global smartphone shipment growth forecast to 1.9% YoY from 4.2% YoY, citing renewed uncertainties surrounding US tariffs.

Most regions are expected to grow, except North America and China. North America is expected to decline due to expected price increases from tariffs. China has been revised down to near-flat YoY growth on weaker-than-expected market reaction to the government’s subsidy program.

Apple and Samsung’s growth projections have been revised down as cost increases are expected to be passed on to consumers, hurting demand — this despite some easing of the tariff burden compared to earlier worst-case scenarios.

The landscape remains fraught with uncertainty as President Trump previously imposed significant tariffs on imports but has since paused future decisions. This pause leaves many apprehensive about the potential impact of existing tariffs, which could adversely affect smartphone sales in the U. S.Counterpoint further notes that forecasts may be revised lower should the tax situation deteriorate.

Counterpoint Research’s current forecasts assume a relatively stable tariff environment through 2025, although the escalating rhetoric and uncertainty around trade policy could significantly impact OEM pricing strategies, supply chain planning, and, ultimately, consumer demand.

As Apple gears up for the release of the iPhone 17 models, the expectation of increased pricing lingers in the air. While it remains unclear how much prices will rise, preliminary estimates suggest a possible increase of around $100, potentially placing the base model of the iPhone 17 Pro Max at approximately $1, 299.

Source&Images