Predictions for Best Picture at the Oscars 2025: Nominees and Winner Insights

With the 2024 Oscars now behind us, the spotlight shifts to the upcoming 2025 Academy Awards. As the race for the Best Picture nominations heats up, various films have emerged as leading contenders. The surprising nominee results from the previous ceremony illustrate how tricky it is to predict Oscar outcomes this far in advance. Nevertheless, a notable roster of films is already vying for one of the coveted ten Best Picture nominations.

Even before the official 2025 Oscars season commenced, several titles were earmarked as potential heavyweights. Among these, Dune: Part Two stands out, having been pushed from its original 2023 release. Additionally, the latest projects from acclaimed directors like Luca Guadagnino, Yorgos Lanthimos, Sean Baker, Edward Berger, Ridley Scott, Steve McQueen, and Clint Eastwood have surfaced as films to watch. Of course, every Oscars season inevitably features surprises that gain traction in the race. With the official nominations set to be revealed on January 17, 2025, here are Screen Rant’s predicted nominees and winners for the Best Picture category.

Contenders Still in the Running for Best Picture

As we anticipate the final list of Best Picture nominees, several other films remain in contention and could shift the current lineup. Titles such as Hard Truths, Nickel Boys, and The Piano Lesson are hoping to build on their favorable momentum. Additionally, international titles like I’m Still Here, All We Imagine as Light, and The Seed of the Sacred Fig could also create surprises. Nosferatu may serve as a dark horse, especially with its nominations in several technical categories.

10. Sing Sing

Release Date: July 12, 2024

Having premiered at the Toronto International Film Festival in 2023, Sing Sing has positioned itself as a significant contender, appealing to various Oscar criteria. The film chronicles the true story of the Rehabilitation Through the Arts program at Sing Sing Correctional Facility, featuring both seasoned actors and former inmates in the original musical Breakin’ the Mummy’s Code.

Despite its strong critical reception and continued presence in awards discussions, Sing Sing currently faces challenges in securing a Best Picture nomination, particularly after not receiving a PGA nod. Should films like Nickel Boys or September 5 gain traction, Sing Sing could find itself on the chopping block, although its prospects in other categories remain promising.

9. The Substance

Release Date: September 20, 2024

Widely regarded as one of the season’s standout films, The Substance, crafted by Coralie Fargeat and featuring Demi Moore, has sparked conversations surrounding Hollywood and the nature of beauty. With Fargeat potentially earning a Best Director nomination and Moore favored for Best Actress, the film’s presence in multiple categories suggests it could be a formidable Best Picture candidate.

Its achievements at the PGA, alongside a nomination for Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy at the Golden Globes, underline its status as a serious contender with ongoing critical acclaim and solid box office performance. While it may be a long shot to secure the Best Picture win, simply receiving a nomination marks a significant accomplishment.

8. A Real Pain

Release Date: November 1, 2024

Jesse Eisenberg’s A Real Pain is poised for recognition in the Best Picture category, despite potentially limited overall nominations. With Kieran Culkin emerging as a frontrunner for Best Supporting Actor and Eisenberg’s script likely to earn a nod for Best Original Screenplay, the film has garnered sufficient backing to enter the Best Picture discussion.

Following acknowledgement at the Golden Globes and a spot on the National Board of Review’s Top 10 Films list, A Real Pain shows promise, even if it is not expected to clinch an actual win. However, its nominations will elevate its profile further within the industry.

7. Dune: Part Two

Release Date: March 1, 2024

The highly anticipated sequel, Dune: Part Two, directed by Denis Villeneuve, missed eligibility for the 2024 awards but has emerged as a front-runner for 2025. Shining a light on Paul Atreides’ transition from outcast to ruler, the film marries breathtaking visuals with deep thematic elements concerning imperialism and spirituality.

Historical context favors Dune: Part Two in the Oscars race, as its predecessor garnered a nomination previously. With solid critical reception and a substantial box office impact, it stands a strong chance to secure its place in the Best Picture lineup. Confirmed nominations at both the Golden Globes and PGA further solidify its status as a leading contender.

6. Wicked

Release Date: November 22, 2024

With exceptional audience and critic acclaim, Wicked has emerged as a top contender for multiple Oscars, including Best Picture. This adaptation of the Broadway musical has dazzled viewers, combining stellar musical performances, elaborate visuals, and powerful acting from leads Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande. Its financial success only adds to its favorability.

Musicals typically struggle to take home the Best Picture Oscar, but Wicked could overturn that trend. It has commenced its awards journey on a high note by winning Best Film from the National Board of Review, although its path to a Golden Globe win in the Musical or Comedy category proved unfruitful. Still, the PGA nomination positions it well for a Best Picture nod.

5. A Complete Unknown

Release Date: December 25, 2024

Directed by James Mangold, A Complete Unknown is anticipated to contend actively in the Best Picture category, spotlighting the life of music icon Bob Dylan, portrayed by Timothée Chalamet. This film possesses the qualities the Academy often favors—narratives centered on cultural figures with considerable star power both in front of and behind the camera.

Mangold’s history of success with true stories further enhances its prospects, as illustrated by his earlier nomination for Ford v. Ferrari. Although positioned favorably within the Best Picture competition, it may need additional boosts in visibility to move beyond being a secondary contender.

4. The Brutalist

Release Date: December 20, 2024

The Brutalist, a sweeping historical epic, has captured significant attention following its premiere at the Venice Film Festival. Directed by Brady Corbet and flaunting performances from Oscar-winners Adrien Brody and Felicity Jones, this ambitious three-and-a-half-hour film is regarded as a fierce competitor for the Best Picture Oscar.

Despite potential challenges of a late-year release, the film’s festival reception has established it as a strong contender, leading to heightened expectations across multiple categories, including Best Director and Best Actor. Winning the Golden Globe for Best Motion Picture – Drama further emphasizes its standing, though any controversies surrounding its production may impact its overall chances.

3. Emilia Perez

Release Date: November 1, 2024

Emilia Pérez, a daring entry that won the Jury Prize at Cannes, stars Zoe Saldaña and Selena Gomez in an innovative narrative about a cartel leader’s gender transition, assisted by a disillusioned lawyer. This film not only showcases exceptional performances but also original songs that enhance its emotional depth.

Its unconventional content may challenge traditional Oscar narratives, but awards momentum hints at its viability. It has already been recognized with a Palme d’Or nomination and various accolades from TIFF and the Golden Globes, positioning Emilia Pérez favorably for a potential Best Picture win.

2. Conclave

Release Date: October 25, 2024

Based on Robert Harris’s bestselling novel, Conclave is a gripping drama featuring a stellar cast, including Ralph Fiennes and Stanley Tucci, revolving around a Papal conclave. Directed by Academy Award-winner Edward Berger, who previously gained accolades for All Quiet on the Western Front, this film is crafted to be appealing to the Academy.

Since concerns about its tone have diminished, Conclave is gaining recognition through numerous nominations across relevant award circuits. With sharp directorial vision and strong performances, especially from Fiennes, it is a serious threat to become one of the nominated films for Best Picture, despite Focus Features’ elusive Oscar history.

1. Pomegranate

Release Date: October 18, 2024

Emerging as a significant frontrunner for the 2025 Oscars, Anora blends romance and the world of sex work in a captivating narrative. Garnering a 10-minute standing ovation at Cannes, it solidified its reputation by winning the Palme d’Or and subsequently attracting Neon as its distributor.

Neon’s successful track record, particularly promoting Parasite to a Best Picture win, highlights their commitment to making Anora a strong contender. The film’s potential recognition spans multiple categories, especially for Mikey Madison’s performance, which has garnered substantial buzz. With accolades already from the Golden Globes, NBR, and several critics’ groups, Anora is well-positioned for Oscar consideration.

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