NVIDIA’s AIB Market Share Reaches 90% Amid 14.5% Decline in Total GPU Shipments in Q3 2024

In the third quarter of 2024, NVIDIA has astonishingly captured a remarkable 90% share of the AIB GPU market, despite an overall downturn in GPU shipments, which fell slightly due to seasonal factors.

Significant Drop in PC Discrete GPU Shipments

During Q3 2024, shipments of discrete GPUs for PCs totaled 8.1 million units, a notable decrease from 9.5 million units in the previous quarter, Q2 2024. This marked a significant decline of approximately 14.5%—a trend that is seldom observed.

Traditionally, the third quarter experiences increased consumer activity in purchasing PC hardware, often buoyed by holiday discounts. Over the past decade, GPU shipments typically surged, averaging a 7.9% increase when compared to Q2 results.

AIB GPU shipments Q3 2024 — Image Credit: jonpeddie.com

This decline mirrors a similar occurrence from Q3 2018. According to Jon Peddie Research, the total GPU shipments have not only fallen below the crucial 10 million threshold but have also occurred alongside a sharp uptick in global CPU shipments during the same period.

CPU Shipments Contrarily Surge

CPU shipments experienced a drastic rise, soaring to 20.1 million units in Q3 2024—a remarkable 42.2% increase from the previous quarter. However, on a year-over-year basis, CPU shipments decreased by 3.4%. This shift has adversely affected the attach rate for AIBs in desktop PCs, leading to a staggering drop of 141% and a 26.9% decline compared to Q2 2024.

Desktop PC and attach rate Q3 2024 — Image Credit: jonpeddie.com

NVIDIA’s Dominance in the AIB Market

NVIDIA’s dominance is underscored by an increase of 2% in market share from the previous quarter, positioning the company with an 8% higher share compared to Q3 2023. Meanwhile, competitor Intel has seen its GPU share drop to 0%, with AMD holding the remaining 10% in Q3 2024.

Total AIB share Q3 2024 — Image Credit: jonpeddie.com

Market Outlook and Future Predictions

Dr. A.S. Jon Peddie, President of JPR, provided insights on the future of the GPU market:

Our long-term CAGR forecast is gloomy based on the expected impact of significantly higher end-user prices due to the projected tariffs.

We think the tariffs and lack of matching wage increases in the next two years will drive the US economy into a recession, and other nations will feel the implications as consumers pull back their spending.

Experts foresee a challenging future for the GPU market, with shipments expected to steadily decline in the years ahead. JPR projects a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of -6.0% for AIBs from 2024 to 2028, estimating total shipments will reach just 119 million units by the end of 2028.

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