NVIDIA Revises AI Business Outlook for China Amidst US Export Controls; Team Green Excludes Region from Revenue Projections

NVIDIA’s CEO, Jensen Huang, has recently expressed a stark shift in the company’s outlook regarding its operations in China, indicating that the firm will exclude the region from its future revenue forecasts. This change reflects growing concerns over the impact of U. S.export controls.

NVIDIA’s Diminished Prospects in China Due to U. S.Export Restrictions

The effect of U. S.export controls has severely constrained NVIDIA’s business opportunities in China, causing the company to struggle relative to its global performance. Currently, NVIDIA cannot sell its advanced chips to the Chinese market, and even its lower-tier solutions, such as the H20 AI accelerator, are now off-limits. Given this landscape, Huang has made it clear that without a lifting of these restrictions, China can no longer be counted on for consistent revenue streams.

I’ve told all of our investors and shareholders that, going forward, our forecasts will not include the China market.

– Reuters

Huang has not only highlighted the detrimental effects of U. S.export controls on NVIDIA but has also criticized their effectiveness, suggesting the policies have not achieved their intended goals. Previously, he labeled the AI Diffusion rule as nonsensical and expressed disapproval of the restrictions imposed on the H20 AI platform. NVIDIA has historically relied on the Chinese market for substantial revenue, and current limitations threaten to wipe out billions in potential profits—an outcome that has already prompted significant write-offs.

Comparison of NVIDIA's AI Chip Renting Services in China and the US, showing a lower rate in China

NVIDIA’s perspective towards U. S.restrictions is straightforward: absent from the Chinese market, American technology companies risk enabling China to develop competing alternatives that could threaten U. S.leadership in the global AI landscape. If China manages to acquire the computational power it needs, the pace of its AI advancement could accelerate dramatically. For instance, the successful development of models like DeepSeek R1—even without access to cutting-edge AI chips—illustrates potential innovations that may emerge if restrictions are lifted.

As it stands, NVIDIA does not expect any leniency regarding regulatory policies from the current U. S.administration. Following the recent Geneva agreement, U. S.Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick reiterated that high-end chips would not be supplied to China. Observing how NVIDIA navigates its relationship with the Chinese market will be critical as we look to the future.

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