Novo Nordisk Faces Worst Day Since 2002 as Under-Trial Oral Weight Loss Drug Falls Short, Reaching Goldman’s “Disaster” Threshold

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Novo Nordisk’s Weight Loss Drug CagriSema Falls Short in Phase 3 Trial

In what has been characterized as the final significant event in the stock market for this year, Novo Nordisk has released the findings from its phase 3 study of CagriSema, its experimental weight loss medication. Unfortunately, these results did not meet the elevated expectations of industry analysts and investors alike.

Understanding CagriSema and Its Mechanism

For those unfamiliar with the technology, CagriSema works through a combination approach. It pairs Wegovy, which features Semaglutide—an approved GLP-1 agonist—with Cagrilintide, a long-acting analog of Amylin. Amylin plays a crucial role in appetite regulation by enhancing satiety without the involvement of the GLP-1 pathway. This dual-action design aims to facilitate significant weight reduction by different mechanisms.

Phase 2 Trial Insights

In earlier studies, specifically the phase 2 trial, CagriSema demonstrated promising results, achieving an average weight loss of approximately 15.6% over 32 weeks. In comparison, Cagrilintide alone produced about 8.1% weight reduction, while Wegovy indicated a lesser effect with only 5.1% weight loss.

The Disappointing Phase 3 Trial Results

As expectations were set high, Novo Nordisk claimed that the phase 3 trial would confirm even greater efficacy of CagriSema:

“There has been no change in our confidence level.”

Goldman Sachs formulated projections based on potential outcomes for the drug’s performance, categorizing them as follows:

Weight loss of 23% or lower: expected to lead to a disastrous 10% to 15% drop in Novo Nordisk’s stock.
Weight loss of 25%: forecasted to yield a moderate 5% to 10% increase.
Weight loss of 26%: stock rise projected at 10%.
Weight loss of 27%: substantial increase anticipated at 15%.

Key Findings from the Latest Trial

Recently, Novo Nordisk shared the final results of the phase 3 trial with a stark conclusion:

“When evaluating the effects of treatment if all people adhered to treatment, people treated with CagriSema achieved a superior weight loss of 22.7% after 68 weeks compared to a reduction of 11.8% with cagrilintide 2.4 mg, 16.1% with semaglutide 2.4 mg and 2.3% with placebo alone.”

Moreover, the press release highlighted significant outcomes regarding patient success:

“In addition, 40.4% of patients who received CagriSema reached a weight loss of 25% or more after 68 weeks, compared to 6.0% with cagrilintide 2.4 mg, 16.2% with semaglutide 2.4 mg, and 0.9% with placebo.”

Market Reactions and Future Implications

The weight loss efficacy of 22.7% falls within Goldman Sachs’ “disaster” range, prompting an immediate market response. As a result, shares of Novo Nordisk have plummeted by over 17% during pre-market trading, positioning the company for its most significant decline since at least 2002.

These developments not only reflect the volatile nature of pharmaceutical stocks but also underscore the pressures companies face as they seek to deliver on high expectations set by extensive clinical trials and previous accomplishments.

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