Nintendo Switch 2 Expected to Experience Slower Adoption Rates; Game Pass Projected to Hit 50 Million Subscribers by 2025, According to SuperData Founder

Nintendo Switch 2: Anticipation Builds Ahead of Launch

The highly anticipated Nintendo Switch 2 is set to make a grand entrance soon, with a special Direct presentation slated for April 2, followed by public hands-on events globally. Speculation suggests that the console’s launch could occur as early as June, particularly bolstered by the impressive shipment figures of nearly 400, 000 units to North America in January.

Market Predictions: A Divided Landscape

When it comes to forecasting the success of the Nintendo Switch 2, analysts are not entirely aligned. In a recent Bloomberg article, gaming industry analyst Serkan Toto expressed an optimistic view. He expects the Nintendo Switch 2 to achieve massive sales shortly after its release, irrespective of its price.

Toto emphasized the strong lineup of software available during the first year, highlighting the long-awaited releases such as a new Mario Kart, a refreshed 3D Mario title, Pokémon Legends: Z-A, and Metroid Prime 4. Additionally, he noted that robust third-party support, potentially including major franchises like Call of Duty, would also be available from day one.

Contrasting Views: Caution from Industry Experts

Conversely, analysts like Joost van Dreunen, co-founder of SuperData Research and current CEO of Aldora, offer a more conservative outlook. In his latest publication, ‘The 2025 State of Play on Games, Tech, and Media’, he argues that the backward compatibility of the Nintendo Switch 2, coupled with only modest hardware improvements, will likely result in a slower adoption rate, particularly among budget-conscious gamers. He predicts a launch price around $399.

Industry Trends and Future Outlook

Van Dreunen shared additional insights into significant trends affecting the gaming industry. He anticipates that Game Pass subscriptions will reach 50 million this year, as gamers increasingly seek more economical options amidst rising costs. He also speculated on the introduction of an ad-supported subscription tier.

Regarding pricing in the gaming industry, van Dreunen dismisses fears that Rockstar Games will raise the price of the highly anticipated Grand Theft Auto VI to $100. He suggests, however, that premium editions could be priced as high as $150 to $200, with expectations for GTA VI to generate an astonishing $1 billion in sales on its launch day.

On a less positive note, van Dreunen foresees significant changes at Ubisoft, predicting that the company may soon be acquired by private equity firms, leading to widespread layoffs across its studios. He warns that the industry as a whole may experience further downsizing, especially among larger studios that continue to eliminate underperforming projects before their release.

As the gaming community waits for the Nintendo Switch 2’s unveiling, the contrasting opinions of these industry experts highlight the uncertainty surrounding the console’s future. Regardless of varying viewpoints, one thing is clear: the gaming landscape is set for notable changes in the coming months.

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