New Report Challenges Assumptions About China’s Interest in the Apple iPhone Air

Recent enthusiasm around Apple’s iPhone Air in China seemed justified, particularly due to its eSIM-only feature, which marked a significant novelty in a region where such technology had only recently become accessible. However, a new analysis has cast doubt on this optimistic view by neglecting to mention the iPhone Air altogether.

Counterpoint Research: “Apple Captured One in Four Smartphone Sales in China in October, Growing 37% Year-over-Year”

A line graph titled 'iPhone Share of China Smartphone Sell-through' shows fluctuating percentages from October 2019 to October 2025, highlighting key events affecting sales like iPhone 13 demand and competition from Huawei. — Source

Counterpoint Research has recently published a new report that unveils the dynamics of China’s smartphone market:

In October, smartphone sales in China saw an 8% year-over-year increase, significantly propelled by a remarkable 37% surge in iPhone sales, with 80% of those sales attributed to the recently launched iPhone 17 lineup.
Data from Counterpoint’s Market Pulse Monthly Smartphone Sell-Through Tracker indicates that the base model of the iPhone 17 has outperformed the iPhone 16 series in sales in the Chinese market.
Additionally, the iPhone 17 Pro and Pro Max models are also experiencing healthy sales figures in this massive smartphone market.
Xiaomi achieved the No.2 position for smartphone sales in October for the first time in over ten years.
This October marks an unprecedentedly strong start for Apple in the December quarter, with total sales far exceeding the peak reached in October 2021.
Remarkably, one out of every four smartphones sold in China during October was an iPhone—an achievement only previously seen in 2022 when Apple’s competition in the premium market was less intense.
Critically, the report makes no mention of the iPhone Air, raising concerns about its sales momentum.

Counterpoint Research had previously indicated that the iPhone Air represented about 3% of Apple’s sales mix in both China and the US, versus the 4% share of the iPhone 16 Plus, suggesting declining sales traction.

The recent report’s lack of reference to the iPhone Air amplifies fears regarding its reception within China, the world’s largest smartphone market.

Compounding these concerns, the anticipated release of the Apple iPhone Air 2 has been pushed back to Spring 2027. Reports suggest that this delay stems from Apple’s ambition to incorporate a dual-camera system. However, insights from Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman hint that the postponement may instead be linked to the forthcoming A20 chip, which utilizes TSMC’s advanced 2nm technology and innovative Wafer-Level Multi-Chip Module (WMCM) packaging to optimize integration of components such as the system-on-chip (SoC) and DRAM.

Given the production limitations associated with TSMC’s 2nm process, Apple’s decision to synchronize the launches of the iPhone Air alongside the iPhone 18 and iPhone 18e in Spring 2027—as opposed to Fall 2026—appears to be a strategic response to ensuring adequate A20 chip supply.

While Apple anticipated that the iPhone Air would contribute between 6% and 8% to its annual iPhone sales, its role as a testing ground for new technologies remains significant. However, the omission of the iPhone Air from Counterpoint Research’s latest report raises pressing questions about its sales outlook and future viability.

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