Morgan Stanley Reports Tesla Could Save $2.5 Billion By Substituting 10% Of Its Workforce With Optimus Humanoid Robots

Morgan Stanley Reports Tesla Could Save $2.5 Billion By Substituting 10% Of Its Workforce With Optimus Humanoid Robots

This article is not intended as investment advice. The author does not hold any positions in the stocks discussed.

The Current State of Tesla Amid Political Turbulence

At the beginning of this year, Elon Musk’s involvement in political matters appeared to favor Tesla significantly, particularly during a time of synergy between him and former President Trump. However, this favorable condition has drastically shifted. Presently, Tesla faces several challenges, such as losing federal EV credits and impending demand reduction for Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) regulatory credits. Additionally, the recent announcement of Musk’s intention to establish a new political party in the U. S.has intensified scrutiny on the electric vehicle manufacturer. Despite these hurdles, Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas has identified some silver linings for Tesla.

Musk’s Political Ambitions and Tesla’s Response

For those unfamiliar, Musk recently conducted a poll regarding the necessity of a new political party in the United States, which resulted in a favorable response from the majority. Following this, he publicly confirmed plans to establish such a party. However, a viral filing submitted to the Federal Election Commission (FEC) has been promptly labeled ‘false’ by Musk himself.

Morgan Stanley’s Support for Tesla Amidst Challenges

In light of recent events, Adam Jonas, a steadfast supporter of Tesla’s stock, has released a note suggesting that investors should brace for an increase in resources—financial and otherwise—devoted to Musk’s political agenda, which he believes may further impact TSLA shares negatively in the near future. Jonas exercises a positive view of Musk’s political engagements, arguing they are part of a calculated strategy to highlight various issues and gain substantial public attention.

Delivery Numbers and Future Projections

In his report, Jonas acknowledged Tesla’s second-quarter delivery figures, which met expectations set by Morgan Stanley. Tesla reported delivering 384, 122 vehicles in Q2 2025, alongside a production capacity of 410, 244 units—numbers that aligned well with the consensus estimate of 385, 086 units compiled by Tesla’s investor relations team.

Potential Cost Savings Through Robotic Workforce

One of the most intriguing aspects of Jonas’s analysis is his projection that Tesla could save an impressive $2.5 billion by integrating Optimus humanoid robots to replace just 10% of its workforce of 125, 665 employees. Each robot is estimated to hold a net present value (NPV) of $200, 000, according to Morgan Stanley’s assessment.

Concerns Over Energy Business Stability

Conversely, Jonas expressed concern regarding Tesla’s energy division, which saw energy storage deployments stagnating year-over-year in Q2, signaling potential instability in this sector.

Implications of the ‘Big Beautiful Bill’

As the legislative environment shifts, the federal tax credits supporting electric vehicles and solar initiatives are set to expire by September 30th and December 31st, respectively, due to Trump’s ‘Big Beautiful Bill.’ This significant change has led to a decline in demand for ZEV regulatory credits, as the penalties for manufacturers failing to adhere to Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards are being lifted.

Historically, ZEV credits have represented a vital revenue stream for Tesla, generating billions under California’s stringent ZEV mandate—an initiative originally established through a Senate exemption allowing higher emission standards, which is now revoked. Nonetheless, Tesla will continue benefiting from these incentives in the European market.

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