LPDDR5X Technology: The Cause of Rising Smartphone Prices in 2026

The ongoing surge in AI applications has intensified the demand for high bandwidth memory (HBM), leading to significant market adjustments that are expected to greatly affect the pricing of LPDDR5x memory, a critical component for smartphones. As supply constraints are felt across the board, the ramifications for smartphone manufacturers are becoming increasingly pronounced.

TrendForce Adjusts DRAM Price Forecast for Q4, Impacting LPDDR5x Prices

Recent reports illustrate how the heightened use of HBM in data center servers is straining wafer capacities due to their considerable size—between 35% and 45% larger than standard DRAM chips. This strain on production resources is now poised to influence DRAM prices significantly.

According to a recent TrendForce report, market dynamics are shifting into overdrive as demand is outpacing supply, leading to adjustments in DRAM pricing forecasts. Here are some key findings from the report:

Contract prices for DRAM are on the rise as global cloud service providers (CSPs) continue to expand their operations.
TrendForce has revised its DRAM pricing forecast for Q4 2025, increasing its expected growth from an earlier estimate of 8-13% to between 18-23%, with potential for further increases.
Server shipments worldwide are projected to grow by 4% year-over-year in 2026.
CSPs are making swift transitions to high-performance computing (HPC) platforms, resulting in a demand for DRAM that exceeds previous expectations and exacerbates the ongoing supply shortage.
DDR5 contract prices are expected to rise steadily throughout 2026, particularly in the first half.
Conversely, HBM contract prices are anticipated to begin a year-over-year decline in 2026, spurred by heightened competition and robust inventory levels of HBM3e.
As of Q2 2025, HBM3e is priced at a fourfold premium compared to DDR5.
By the first quarter of 2026, profitability for DDR5 will surpass that of HBM3e.

This growing demand for HBM has been reported to extend delivery timelines for DDR5 memory chips to anywhere between 26 to 39 weeks. A similar trend has been highlighted in the recent TrendForce analysis, confirming that delays in DRAM supply are instrumental in shaping current market conditions.

Xiaomi’s President, Lu Weibing, further corroborated these observations in a recent Weibo post, stating that the company is unable to alter the overarching trends within global supply chains. He acknowledged that the increase in storage costs is significantly higher than anticipated and is expected to persist.

These price dynamics are beginning to squeeze profit margins for System on Chip (SoC) manufacturers like MediaTek, which is gearing up to transition to the 2nm technology node. At this time, reports indicate that TSMC could be charging upwards of $30, 000 per individual 2nm wafer, further straining operational costs.

For those unfamiliar, LPDDR5x represents a high-performance, low-power variant of traditional Dynamic Random Access Memory (DRAM), primarily utilized in smartphones, tablets, and ultraportable laptops. The current fluctuations affecting the broader DRAM market are similarly influencing LPDDR5x availability and pricing, posing emerging challenges for smartphone original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) like Xiaomi and Samsung. The latter is reportedly considering raising smartphone prices in the upcoming year.

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