Kieran Culkin Dominates the 2025 Oscar Race for Best Supporting Actor

Following the recent 2025 Golden Globes, Kieran Culkin has positioned himself as a leading candidate for the Best Supporting Actor award at the upcoming 2025 Oscars. Held on January 6 at the iconic Beverly Hilton Hotel in Beverly Hills, California, the event, hosted by comedian Nikki Glaser—who gained attention as a guest on Netflix’s The Roast of Tom Brady—saw Culkin’s victory among several notable surprises that shaped the night.

Culkin’s unexpected success over industry titan Denzel Washington, who was also nominated for his role in Ridley Scott’s Gladiator II, indicates a potentially significant narrative shift heading into the Oscars. Although Culkin is an Emmy and prior Golden Globe winner for his performance in the HBO series Succession, this marks his first major accolade for film work. Washington is pursuing a historic eleventh Oscar nomination and aims for a third win, which would further solidify his legacy.

Kieran Culkin Emerges as a Strong Contender for the Best Supporting Actor Oscar

Critical Acclaim and Audience Praise for Culkin’s Outstanding Performance

Kieran Culkin and Jesse Eisenberg stare up at a statue in Poland in A Real Pain

Despite high expectations surrounding Washington’s performance, Culkin’s Golden Globe victory signals a meaningful moment in his career and boosts his chances for an Academy Award nomination for his role in A Real Pain, directed by and co-starring Jesse Eisenberg. This accolade not only highlights Culkin’s talents but also suggests a shifting dynamic in the competitive race leading to the Oscars.

A Real Pain debuted at the Sundance Film Festival in January 2024 before its broader release in November. The film’s acclaim evolved gradually, particularly during awards season, showcasing Culkin’s portrayal of a rebellious character alongside Eisenberg’s protagonist. This rising momentum closely narrows the competition between Culkin and Washington.

Culkin’s Golden Globe Win over Washington: Implications for the Oscars

Historical Patterns: 7 of the Last 10 Globe Winners in This Category Secured an Oscar

Culkin’s recent Golden Globe triumph establishes critical momentum as he approaches the Oscars. Historically, a significant correlation exists between Golden Globe and Oscar winners in the Best Supporting Actor category, with 44 matches out of 81 years. More recently, 19 out of the last 24 years and 7 out of the last 10 have aligned between these two prestigious awards. This trend creates an optimistic outlook for Culkin as he strives for his inaugural Oscar.

Notable recent winners in this category include Ke Huy Quan for Everything Everywhere All At Once (2023) and Mahershala Ali, who claimed Oscars for both Moonlight (2017) and Green Book (2019). Although Washington remains a formidable competitor, the historical context favors Culkin’s candidacy as they prepare for a rematch in the Oscars arena.

Is Culkin on Track to Win the Best Supporting Actor Oscar?

Emerging as the Frontrunner with Compelling Data Supporting His Bid

Jesse Eisenberg and Kieran Culkin in A Real Pain

As evidenced by recent events, the landscape of awards season can shift dramatically, and Culkin is making a compelling case as the current frontrunner for the Oscar. However, the competition remains fierce, particularly as new films like The Brutalist gain traction—having won three major prizes at the Golden Globes, including Best Picture – Drama.

Other potential contenders like Guy Pearce from The Brutalist and Edward Norton for his transformative role in A Complete Unknown also merit attention. Emerging talents like Jeremy Strong from The Apprentice and Yura Borisov from Anora are still options, as well as overlooked performances from actors like Clarence Maclin and Stanley Tucci in Sing Sing and Conclave, respectively. Regardless of the evolving narrative, one thing remains clear: Culkin’s Golden Globe victory has major implications moving forward.

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