This article does not constitute investment advice. The author does not hold any positions in the mentioned stocks.
JPMorgan Predicts Tesla Will Miss Q2 Delivery Estimates
In a recent analysis, investment bank JPMorgan has expressed concerns that Tesla will fall short of consensus delivery figures for the second quarter of 2024. The bank now forecasts that Tesla will deliver approximately 360, 000 vehicles, a substantial drop from the consensus projection of 392, 000, and also below their previous estimate of 395, 000. This revision is informed by a combination of public data, seasonality adjustments, and insights derived from insurance registration statistics in China.
Challenges in the European Market
The disappointing Q2 outlook coincides with troubling sales data emerging from Europe. Tesla’s stock experienced a 5.6% dip in Frankfurt trading following reports of substantial declines in vehicle registrations in Denmark and Sweden—61.6% and 64.4% year-over-year declines, respectively, as reported by Mobility Denmark and Reuters.
Multiple Factors Driving Sales Decline
Analysts attribute Tesla’s declining sales figures to several interconnected factors, including:
- Political controversies surrounding CEO Elon Musk
- A significant production overhaul
- The introduction of Tesla’s new Model Y
- Intensified competition from Chinese electric vehicle manufacturers
Year-Over-Year Delivery Comparison
Reflecting on the overall trajectory, JPMorgan’s revised delivery forecast suggests an 18% decrease compared to the 444, 000 vehicles delivered in Q2 2023. This decrease raises concerns about the company’s performance in a challenging automotive landscape. The updated projection also indicates a downward adjustment of 35, 000 vehicles from its previous estimates, reiterating the bank’s reliance on a comprehensive analysis of various data sources.
Impact on Tesla’s Stock Performance
In light of these developments, Tesla shares have dropped by 4.7% during pre-market trading, indicating investor anxiety over delivery issues and Musk’s ongoing political clashes. The earlier forecast of 395, 000 deliveries already represented an 11% year-over-year decline, highlighting the challenges Tesla faces, exacerbated by inflation and elevated interest rates that are currently stifling the electric vehicle market.
Future Projections and Market Consensus
As of now, the market consensus estimates predict 392, 000 vehicle deliveries, slightly higher than Tesla’s internal estimates of 385, 000. Year-to-date, Tesla shares have fallen by 16%, reflecting a broader bearish sentiment stemming from political issues, delivery hurdles, and setbacks related to the anticipated rollout of their robotic taxi service.
For more detailed insights, you can check the full report here.
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