Jefferies Analyzes Palantir: “Insider Selling Resumes Under 10b5-1 Plans in 2025 as CEO Sells Additional $45M in Shares, Reducing Stake by Nearly 21% Over Last 6 Months”

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Palantir’s Market Position: A Divided Landscape

Palantir Technologies continues to attract polarized opinions, especially amid ongoing discussions about its valuation and growth potential. Proponents often highlight the company’s impressive performance according to the “Rule of 40, ”which suggests that a combination of growth rate and profit margin should reach or surpass 40%.Conversely, skeptics continue to question the sustainability of its elevated stock valuation. However, recent market fluctuations have alleviated some of these concerns, leading to a reevaluation of its financial standing.

Analyst Perspectives

Analysts are clearly split on Palantir’s near-term outlook, with contrasting assessments emerging from major financial institutions this week. On one side of the spectrum, Jefferies has adopted a cautious stance, while William Blair has shown increased confidence in the stock.

Bearish Outlook from Jefferies

Jefferies analyst Brent Thill has reiterated an ‘Underperform‘ rating for Palantir shares, citing the resumption of insider selling under 10b5-1 plans in 2025. Notably, CEO Alex Karp sold an additional $45 million in shares, reducing his overall stake by nearly 21% over the past six months.

Moreover, the company has altered Karp’s compensation plan, now permitting him to divest up to 9.975 million shares (valued at approximately $841 million) until September 12, 2025. This is a significant reduction compared to the previous plan that allowed for the sale of 48.9 million shares.

Valuation Insights

Thill observed that Palantir’s valuation has experienced notable compression, stating:

“After peaking at 61x CY26 revenue, PLTR’s multiple has quickly compressed by 36% to 39x but is still ~2x the next-highest software name. Given how other big multiple stories have traded post-peak, we think there is more multiple contraction to come.”

William Blair’s Bullish Upgrade

In contrast, William Blair analyst Louie DiPalma upgraded Palantir from an ‘Underperform’ to a ‘Market Perform‘ rating. DiPalma attributed this change to the stock’s “33% DOGE-driven selloff, ”triggered by U. S.Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s directive for a new budget involving an annual 8% cut in defense spending through 2030. Given Palantir’s substantial reliance on government contracts, any reduction in budgets can act as a significant headwind for the stock.

Despite acknowledging that “valuation is still frothy with potential downside risks exceeding 40% due to government contract delays, ”DiPalma believes that Palantir shares could rebound strongly should investor sentiment shift back to “risk-on mode.”He anticipates that the stock will remain “range-bound over the next year”amid persistent market volatility, especially with concerns about a potential government shutdown on March 15 further complicating the outlook.

Opportunistic View from Wedbush

Meanwhile, Dan Ives from Wedbush perceives the current dip in Palantir’s shares as a strategic buying opportunity. He expressed optimistic projections, suggesting that Palantir “could reach a trillion-dollar market cap over the coming years, positioning itself alongside tech giants like Oracle and Salesforce as the AI Revolution unfolds.”

The contrasts in these analysts’ perspectives underline the complex and fluctuating nature of Palantir’s market position, emphasizing the need for investors to stay informed and vigilant amidst evolving developments.

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