Is Microsoft Falling Behind in the AI Race? Copilot (Web) Holds Only 1% Market Share, Windows 11 Popularity Remains Unclear

Microsoft’s position in the artificial intelligence landscape appears precarious, unless the company has an innovative AI model lurking in its development pipeline. Recent observations from Windows Latest reveal that Microsoft’s Copilot holds a meager web market share of just 1.1%.In stark contrast, ChatGPT commands a substantial 64.5% share, and Gemini is gaining ground with 21%.Even lesser-known competitor Perplexity surpasses Copilot with a 2% market share.

This analysis is derived from data provided by SimilarWeb, a respected digital analytics firm that tracks web traffic. It’s important to note that these figures reflect visits to specific websites like copilot.microsoft.com and chatgpt.com, rather than usage across desktop or mobile applications. Therefore, it remains uncertain how well Copilot is performing on devices outside of web interactions, which has led to tempered expectations.

Copilot’s Declining Market Share

Examining the AI landscape over the past year reveals a troubling trend for Copilot. Its market share has declined from 1.5% in January 2025 to approximately 1.1% by January 2026. Initially, Copilot saw gradual monthly growth but has recently lost users significantly, indicating that its user base has effectively remained stagnant over the past six months.

AI Market Share Comparison as of January 2026
Timeframe	ChatGPT	Gemini	DeepSeek	Grok	Perplexity	Claude	Copilot
12 Months Ago	86.7%	5.7%	–	–	1.9%	1.5%	1.5%
6 Months Ago	78.6%	8.6%	4.8%	2.1%	1.6%	1.5%	1.1%
3 Months Ago	74.1%	12.9%	3.7%	2.0%	2.4%	2.0%	1.2%
1 Month Ago	68.0%	18.2%	3.9%	2.9%	2.1%	2.0%	1.2%
Current (Jan 2)	64.5%	21.5%	3.7%	3.4%	2.0%	2.0%	1.1%

Despite noticeable declines in ChatGPT’s market share (from 86.7% to 64.5%) and significant growth for Gemini (from 5.7% to 21.5%), Copilot has failed to capitalize on the shifting landscape, showing no substantial gain in user numbers.

According to detailed insights from SimilarWeb, Copilot had been on an upward trajectory for several months, peaking at a 19% increase in the final week of September 2025. However, this progress was short-lived, as usage fell by 19% in December 2025, while competitor tools maintained their popularity and even increased usage.

In summary, although Copilot experienced initial growth, it failed to gain significant market traction—a likely indicator that either the overall category is expanding at a quicker rate or that its user gains have been relatively insignificant within its already small base. As of January 2, 2026, Copilot’s performance places it among the decline alongside notable AI tools, such as OpenAI’s ChatGPT (-22%) and Perplexity (-27%), while Gemini (+49%) and Grok (+52%) are gaining momentum.

In the past month alone, Grok’s market share jumped from 2.9% to 3.4%, effectively capturing nearly half of Copilot’s total share, a striking development for such a nascent competitor.

The Unknown Popularity of Copilot on Windows 11

Determining Copilot’s popularity on Windows 11 proves challenging, as Microsoft does not disclose relevant usage data. The Microsoft Store also lacks transparency with no clear download or installation counts available. This makes it difficult to gauge Cabilot’s actual engagement compared to ChatGPT, which is available via the Play Store.

Microsoft Store Reviews Count for GPT and Copilot

A comparison of the review counts reveals that while ChatGPT has garnered over 2, 000 reviews, Copilot boasts more than 75, 000. This discrepancy does not necessarily indicate higher usage; rather, it may be due to Copilot’s default installation on Windows systems, contrasting with the manual installation required for ChatGPT. Furthermore, OpenAI’s marketing efforts for its Windows application have been less aggressive than for Copilot.

Considering these factors, accurately assessing the popularity of Copilot on Windows 11 remains an elusive task.

Microsoft’s Lack of Updates Suggests Copilot’s Limited Appeal

The absence of significant user engagement for Copilot raises questions. Had it gained traction among consumers, Microsoft would likely have highlighted its success. Historically, the company has not hesitated to broadcast milestones, such as the impressive number of active Windows devices. If Copilot truly commanded consumer interest, it would surely be a focus of their marketing efforts.

Moreover, Copilot’s integration within Microsoft Edge, which has a more than 10% market share, does not reveal the tool’s user engagement within the browser sidebar. Ultimately, the question remains: how many individuals actively utilize Copilot? Are they mainly web users, or do they engage through Windows or Android/iOS apps?

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