Intel May Exit Advanced Chip Market Without External Customer Demand, Threatening the Future of Moore’s Law

Under the leadership of new CEO Lip-Bu Tan, Intel’s foundry division is poised for significant transformation. Among the notable shifts is the pivotal decision to reconsider the pursuit of advanced chip technologies.

Intel’s CEO Lip-Bu Tan Set to Implement Bold Strategies to Revitalize the Company, Including Potentially Abandoning IFS

In the recently released Q2 earnings report, Intel disclosed troubling financial results characterized by operating losses. Although the company has initiated extensive layoffs, restoring its former success appears to be a daunting task. CEO Tan is focusing on comprehensive reforms to Intel’s business model, significantly affecting the foundry division. According to Intel’s 10-Q filing, the company is prepared to withdraw from the competition for cutting-edge chips unless it can secure substantial external demand for upcoming technology nodes like 18A and 14A.

Intel, the home of Moore’s Law, for the first time in history, is evaluating if it will continue at the leading edge. From its 10-Q: “However, if we are unable to secure a significant external customer and meet important customer milestones for Intel 14A, we face the prospect… pic.twitter.com/7Bpk7vRcE9

— SemiAnalysis (@SemiAnalysis_) July 24, 2025

The future of Intel’s foundry division remains uncertain, primarily for two reasons. Firstly, the chip market is currently skewed in favor of TSMC, which is capturing most of the industry’s attention. Although Intel’s 18A process has shown promising advancements, the market continues to favor partnerships with the Taiwanese manufacturer, leaving Intel in a precarious position. Secondly, despite investing billions into Intel Foundry Services (IFS), there has yet to be a transformative breakthrough that could revitalize the company’s fortunes.

However, if we are unable to secure a significant external customer and meet important customer milestones for Intel 14A, we face the prospect that it will not be economical to develop and manufacture Intel 14A and successor leading-edge nodes on a go-forward basis. In such an event, we may pause or discontinue our pursuit of Intel 14A and successor nodes and various of our manufacturing expansion projects.

Recent reports suggest that Intel may abandon its 18A process if it fails to attract meaningful external demand. Currently, the focus for the 18A process appears to be on internal innovations such as Panther Lake and Clearwater Forest, while the outlook for 14A technology is gradually improving. Looking forward, TSMC is expected to continue its dominance in the chip market, with little indication that American semiconductor initiatives will regain significant ground, especially following TSMC’s increasing focus on expanding operations within the United States.

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