Impact of U.S. Tariffs on Global PC Shipments: AI-Powered PCs Fueling Market Momentum

Recent developments in the PC market indicate a potential downturn in shipment volumes, primarily influenced by President Trump’s tariffs. Nevertheless, the rising trend of “AI PCs”is projected to sustain demand within the sector.

PC Manufacturers Face Uncertainty Due to Tariffs, Impacting Future Shipments

The latest implementation of tariffs has injected uncertainty into the PC supply chain. Manufacturers responded to the looming tariff threat by increasing their pre-tariff imports, temporarily boosting demand. However, Counterpoint Research has released a report offering insights into the PC market conditions for Q2 2025. Although there was a minor growth observed, the outlook appears increasingly precarious.

The modest growth seen in Q2 was propelled by the looming end-of-life (EOL) for Windows 10, an uptick in the adoption of AI PCs, and heightened commercial demand stemming from an initial rush to prepare for tariffs and inventory adjustments.

Major industry players like HP and Dell are exercising caution, opting for a “wait and see”approach regarding tariff developments. There is an evident surge in demand for next-generation PC products, driven largely by the Windows 10 EOL cycle and the requisite hardware upgrades for transitioning to newer systems. Meanwhile, consumer interest is mainly fueled by the buzz surrounding AI PCs, particularly in the mid-range laptop segment; however, the broader market remains vulnerable.

Given the uncertainty surrounding US tariffs, it is anticipated that PC shipments will show a year-over-year decline starting in the second half of 2025. Conversely, the demand for AI PCs is projected to serve as a robust driving force in 2026, with estimates suggesting that more than half of laptops shipped in that year will be AI-equipped.

Interestingly, manufacturers are diversifying their supply chains, moving operations away from China to countries such as Vietnam, India, and Mexico to mitigate risks associated with escalating tariffs. However, the prospect of new tariffs on semiconductors adds another layer of unpredictability, contributing to a potential slowdown in PC shipments unless there is a significant shift in the current tariff landscape.

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