Google’s Tensor SoC Shipments Predicted to Face Minimal Resistance in 2026 Amid Memory Shortage, Samsung in Second Place

The introduction of the Tensor G5 marked a less-than-stellar chapter for Google’s SoC efforts. As the company’s inaugural chip leveraging TSMC’s advanced lithography, it fell short when compared to its competitors, particularly in terms of raw performance and efficiency. Nevertheless, projections indicate that Google’s chipset shipments will experience the most robust growth among rivals in 2026, despite the overall market challenges caused by DRAM shortages.

Global Smartphone Chipset Shipments Projected to Drop 7% in 2026: Chinese OEMs to Face Significant Challenges, While Apple, Samsung, and Google Stand Strong

Insights from Counterpoint Research, shared by analyst Soumen Mandal, suggest that rising costs of DRAM and NAND flash memory are becoming pivotal factors influencing the Bill of Materials (BoM), elevating it by 20 percent for flagship smartphones. This year, a notable 6.1 percent decline in smartphone shipments has been forecasted, which mirrors a projected 6.1 percent drop in chipset shipments as well. Chinese OEMs, heavily reliant on chip suppliers like Qualcomm and MediaTek, are expected to bear the brunt of these downturns.

MediaTek, as a fabless semiconductor firm, is anticipated to suffer significantly due to the ongoing DRAM crisis. With over 50 percent of its revenue stemming from chipset sales, the company’s sheer volume ensures it will still maintain a leading position in overall shipments this year.

In contrast, companies like Apple, Google, and Samsung benefit from their in-house chipset strategies, which can help buffer them against the current supply shortages. The following are the updated forecasts for these companies:

Google: 18.9 percent growth (revised), 13.3 percent (previous forecast)
Samsung: 7.3 percent growth (revised), 5.1 percent (previous forecast)
Apple: -4.4 percent growth (consistent with previous forecast)

Chipset Shipment Estimates for 2026 by Counterpoint Research

“In this context, global smartphone shipments are expected to decline 6.1% YoY in 2026, while smartphone SoC shipments are projected to fall 7% compared to 2025. Chinese OEMs are likely to be hit the hardest, while Apple and Samsung are better positioned due to integrated supply chains and a continued shift toward premiumization. Among SoC vendors, UNISOC faces the steepest decline due to its exposure to the shrinking low-end 4G market. In contrast, Google is expected to see the strongest growth, supported by AI differentiation and expanding traction beyond the US and Japan. Samsung’s launch of the 2nm Exynos 2600 further strengthens its vertical strategy, while MediaTek and Qualcomm face mixed outcomes as premium platforms offset weakness in volume segments.”

Counterpoint Research previously noted that the BoM for smartphones could surge by 25 percent, potentially leading to a 2.1 percent decrease in shipments. Manufacturers may be compelled to introduce configurations with 4GB of RAM to preserve their profit margins during this challenging phase.

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