Google’s Android Earthquake Alerts Failed to Deliver Crucial Warnings During Turkey’s Devastating Quakes

Earthquake Catastrophe in Turkey: An Analysis of the Android Earthquake Alerts System

On February 6, 2023, Turkey was struck by two devastating earthquakes: the first, a magnitude 7.8 quake in Pazarcik, followed by a 7.5 magnitude tremor in Elbistan. These natural disasters inflicted severe damage throughout the region. Despite the presence of the Android Earthquake Alerts (AEA) system, the initial magnitude estimations for the first earthquake were alarmingly low, with an initial reading of just 4.5 at 7.1 seconds post-occurrence, peaking at only 4.9—far below the actual seismic activity.

Impact of Underestimated Alerts

This significant underestimation led to minimal response, as only the less urgent “BeAware” alerts were dispatched to roughly half a million devices within a 64-kilometer radius, thereby limiting safety warnings for many affected individuals. In the case of the 7.5 Elbistan earthquake, initial estimates were also inadequate, ranging from 6.1 to 6.3, affecting nearly four million devices. These alerts, however, provided users with warning times varying from just seconds to over a minute.

The Importance of Early Detection Systems

The necessity for robust seismic networks cannot be overstated, particularly in earthquake-prone regions where such infrastructure might be lacking. In this context, systems like AEA play a crucial role, despite Google’s intention for them to serve as supplemental warnings rather than standalone solutions.

Improvements Implemented by Google

While the performance of the AEA system during the earthquakes was regrettable, Google has acknowledged these shortcomings and made significant adjustments to its detection algorithms. Previously, the monitoring duration for earthquake parameters was limited to a brief 10 seconds; this has now been extended to 30 seconds, enabling the collection of more comprehensive data regarding seismic activity.

Additionally, issues with excessive noise from certain phones in the monitoring pool resulted in delayed alerts, particularly during the initial quake. The latest updates improve selectivity, ensuring that only phones with appropriate noise levels are included in monitoring. Furthermore, the “BeAware” alerts have been refined to prevent devices from vibrating unnecessarily, which helps maintain better reporting accuracy during seismic events.

Effectiveness of the Enhanced AEA System

Through simulated testing of the revised algorithms, Google has determined that if the 7.8 magnitude quake were to occur today, it would likely register a 4.6 magnitude after roughly 6.3 seconds—a much quicker assessment compared to earlier estimations—before adjusting to a 7.4 magnitude after 24 seconds. This would result in approximately 10 million devices receiving more urgent “TakeAction” alerts with warnings extended up to 35 seconds, while an estimated 67 million users would receive the “BeAware” alerts, offering up to 2.5 minutes of notification.

User Perception and Trust in Alerts

Despite the initial shortcomings of the AEA system, a comprehensive survey involving over 1.5 million users, excluding those from the United States, revealed a high average helpfulness score of 4.7 out of 5. Impressively, 85% of users reported that the alerts were valuable in their circumstances. Among recipients, 36% received warnings before the shaking started, 28% were alerted during the tremors, and 23% got notifications after the fact.

Furthermore, users who received “TakeAction” alerts reported adherence to the Drop, Cover, and Hold On instructions 28% of the time, outperforming responses recorded in other earthquake early warning systems. Notably, 84% expressed increased confidence in the system going forward, with a mere 0.1% disabling their alerts. With the recent improvements, there is hope that future quake-related fatalities can be significantly diminished.

Image via Depositphotos.com

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