Goldman Sachs Predicts Tesla’s Robotaxi Service Launch in 2H26 Utilizing Remote Assistance and Geofencing

Goldman Sachs Predicts Tesla’s Robotaxi Service Launch in 2H26 Utilizing Remote Assistance and Geofencing

Please note that this article does not constitute investment advice. The author holds no positions in any of the stocks mentioned herein.

Tesla’s Market Position and Future Prospects

The future of Tesla’s substantial market capitalization heavily relies on the success of its Full Self-Driving (FSD) technology, the anticipated robotaxi services, and the development of the Optimus humanoid robot. As discussions around these topics intensify, Wall Street has been analyzing Tesla’s technological advancements, resulting in a flurry of recent research publications.

Insights from Goldman Sachs on Tesla’s FSD

Recently, Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Delaney provided his analysis of Tesla’s performance. He highlighted the “meaningfully improved”capabilities of version 13 of Tesla’s FSD, which he evaluated based on recent test rides, crowdsourced data, and independent reviews. This is consistent with broader industry sentiments, particularly from George Hotz, president of comma.ai, who praised the performance of FSD version 13.

Comparative Performance: Tesla Vs. Waymo

Despite the enhancements, it’s essential to acknowledge that Tesla’s FSD still trails behind competitor Waymo. RBC Capital Markets pointed out that the latest iteration of FSD is tracking for approximately 10,000 miles driven before requiring intervention, while Waymo reports a significantly higher figure of 17,000 miles. However, this comparison is somewhat skewed; Waymo operates within meticulously mapped geofenced areas, whereas Tesla’s data is derived from diverse, real-world driving scenarios.

Challenges Ahead for Full Self-Driving

In his investment note, Delaney emphasized that considerable improvements are still necessary for FSD to transition to a hands-off driving experience, particularly in varied traffic environments or under less-than-ideal conditions.

“We still believe there is significant progress needed for FSD to become a situationally eyes-off product (e.g., on a highway in good weather, or Level 3 autonomy) or allow for eyes-off driving in a wide domain.”

Future Projections for Tesla’s Robotaxi Business

Looking ahead, Goldman Sachs anticipates that Tesla’s robotaxi operations will commence commercial services in the second half of 2026. This rollout will likely incorporate “remote assistance and geofencing”techniques similar to those employed by competitor services currently in operation.

“We believe that the use of remote assistance and a narrow geographic environment could help to improve technical performance compared to Tesla’s FSD software on consumer vehicles, although limit the rate of scaling for at least the next few years.”

As a result, Goldman Sachs has reaffirmed its neutral stance on Tesla’s stock, maintaining a price target of $345.

Market Sentiments from Morgan Stanley and Other Analysts

Moreover, analyst Adam Jonas from Morgan Stanley recently revised his price target for Tesla shares, raising it from $400 to $430. However, he expressed skepticism regarding the company’s future fleet deployment, anticipating no significant advancements in robotaxi services until at least 2032.

For further insights, please refer to the original source for comprehensive analysis and developments regarding Tesla’s strategies and future.

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