Foldable iPad Expected Release in 2028 Due to Low Shipment Forecasts and Rising UTG Costs, Says Analyst

As of now, Apple commands the largest share of the global tablet market; however, this segment has not shown significant growth over recent years. Unlike smartphones, tablets are infrequently updated, with many users choosing to hold onto them as secondary devices. The high price tag attached to premium models further dissuades average consumers, especially when they must choose between an iPad and an iPhone.

These factors have led analysts to anticipate that Apple’s first foray into foldable tablets may not take place until 2028, with projections indicating minimal demand. The incorporation of ultra-thin glass (UTG) technology is expected to increase production costs significantly, potentially discouraging Apple from pursuing this product aggressively. Given the robust sales of iPhones, it seems more prudent for the tech giant to focus on enhancing that line rather than exploring foldable tablets.

The Impact of Ultra-Thin Glass on Production Costs

An analysis by TF International Securities’ Ming-Chi Kuo highlights that the production of UTG for the foldable iPad will involve collaboration between GIS and Corning. However, this advanced glass material is particularly prone to ‘micro-cracks, ’ necessitating a complex manufacturing process that encompasses cutting, finishing, inspection, and packaging. Such requirements could amplify UTG production costs by two to four times compared to traditional smartphone glass.

Moreover, the foldable iPad will feature a larger surface area, which further exacerbates cost concerns. Consequently, Kuo predicts that Apple will only manage to ship between 500, 000 and 1 million units of the foldable iPad by 2028. This projection raises questions about the financial viability of mass production for such a device. In contrast, the anticipated launch of a foldable iPhone could result in shipments between 8 and 10 million units, making it a more lucrative option for Apple.

Looking forward, Kuo suggests that Apple has a few years to strategize on reducing manufacturing costs before the expected 2028 launch. Should the profitability of the foldable iPad remain low, Apple may ultimately decide against proceeding with its introduction altogether.

News Source: Ming-Chi Kuo

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