Disney’s Missed Opportunity: How Moana 2’s Original Plan Could Have Cost $1 Billion

Moana 2 has emerged as one of the standout cinematic highlights from the past year, particularly with its impressive performance at the box office. Initially, had Disney retained its original plan of transforming this sequel from a film into a TV show, it would have jeopardized the studio’s potential to rake in $1 billion in ticket sales. The follow-up to the beloved Moana (2016) secured its position as the third highest-grossing film last year, outperforming various blockbuster contenders such as Wicked and Dune. Only two other Disney outings, Inside Out 2 and Deadpool & Wolverine, could claim higher box office earnings.

This remarkable success is particularly striking when considering that Moana 2 was initially conceived as a television series. If this concept had been retained, Disney+ would have gained yet another streaming title, but the studio would have forfeited one of its most lucrative films of the year. The pivot from a streaming to a theatrical focus unveiled the untapped box office revenue that Disney’s films are capable of generating, especially under changing market conditions.

Disney’s Strategic Shift Under Bob Chapek

The Dominance of Disney+ During Lockdowns

The impressive box office showing for Moana 2 underscores a critical miscalculation involving the prioritization of Disney+ as the primary outlet for major releases. This strategy began with Bob Chapek’s presidency in 2020, when he succeeded Bob Iger. Following extensive pandemic lockdowns, Disney considerably shifted its resources towards streaming media. This strategy saw major films like Mulan and Soul making their debut through Disney+ rather than experiencing large-scale theatrical releases.

Additionally, Moana 2 was first unveiled as a series during the Disney Investor Day in December 2020. Concurrently, theatrical releases like Raya and the Last Dragon were launched via Disney+ Premier Access. Meanwhile, the streaming platform was flooded with content including numerous titles from the Star Wars and Marvel franchises. This wave of animated sequels, like those for Zootopia, The Princess and the Frog, and Moana, were remarkably redirected towards streaming channels instead of theaters, a prudent choice amidst pandemic restrictions that has since revealed its strategic fallibility.

The Evolution of Moana 2: From Streaming to Theatrical Release

Market Saturation and Financial Implications for Disney

Moana and her dad in the Motunui Chief stones.

The dominant strategy to make Disney+ the central hub for the company’s film releases required consistent new content, such as Moana 2. This was envisioned to counterbalance decreased revenue from licensing deals with other streaming platforms. Unfortunately, this shift led to diminished box office returns for Disney’s theatrical offerings, as many viewers chose to await their favorite films’ streaming debuts, thus adversely affecting commercial performance for titles like Lightyear.

Subsequent to these trends, Disney’s leadership recognized the necessity to transition Moana 2 back into a feature film, rather than allowing it to remain a planned TV series. This back-and-forth impacted creative decisions and project timelines. Coupled with the massive influx of shows from Marvel Studios and Lucasfilm, the market faced a glut of content that diverted focus away from theatrical releases, thereby leading to financial challenges for Disney. Chapek’s exit marked a pivotal moment, with Bob Iger’s return heralding a re-emphasis on theatrical showcases.

Moana 2: A Testament to the Need for Theatrical Focus

Dominance of Theatrical Releases in 2024

While Moana 2 retains some episodic elements, its transformation into a feature film has allowed it to thrive in theaters. The combination of beloved characters and an expansive narrative landscape secured its success, ranking as the third highest-grossing film of 2024. Disney’s resurgence at the box office this year, predominantly due to anticipated theatrical releases, serves as a clear signal: the power of cinema remains unbridled.

The extraordinary accomplishments of Moana 2 remind Disney of the undeniable significance of theatrical releases. The grandeur and universal appeal of these major films cultivate a sense of event-style excitement that streaming platforms cannot replicate. To sustain the momentum gained in 2024, Disney must commit to balancing both cinematic and streaming strategies. A streaming version of Moana 2 would likely have eclipsed its $1 billion box office achievement, confirming the importance of theatrical experiences.

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