Insider Reveals PlayStation 6’s 10x Ray Tracing Performance Misunderstood; Actual FPS Improvement Estimated at 3x

The Anticipated Performance of PlayStation 6 Compared to PlayStation 5

The upcoming PlayStation 6 is projected to offer an impressive increase in ray tracing performance, boasting up to 10 times that of the original PlayStation 5. However, gamers should temper their expectations regarding the actual frames per second (FPS) improvements. Renowned leaker KeplerL2 has stated that existing interpretations of AMD documentation may be significantly flawed, suggesting that in practice, the performance enhancement could realistically translate to an average of three times the FPS in games that do not heavily rely on ray tracing.

Clarification on Performance Metrics

In a recent discussion on the NeoGAF forums, KeplerL2 addressed misconceptions perpetuated by other analysts. He explained, “If a slide states ‘Orion 10x RT performance vs. Oberon, ’ it does not imply you can simply convert a PS5’s 30 FPS capability by multiplying it by 10 to compare with a powerful GPU like the 5090.” This interpretation could lead to misleading conclusions regarding the relative performance among systems.

Performance Estimates in Gaming Scenarios

Further elaborating on the expected output from the PlayStation 6, KeplerL2 provided a performance comparison based on Assassin’s Creed: Shadows, citing official data released by Ubisoft. The following table illustrates projected frame times for various rendering tasks:

Task	PS5 Frame Time	PS6 Frame Time (Projected)
Screen Space Tracing	0.54ms	0.18ms
World Space Tracing	1.38ms	0.14ms
Lighting	1.17ms	0.39ms
Denoising	1.91ms	0.64ms
Total RT Tasks	5.00ms	1.35ms

The current PS5 manages a consistent 30 FPS while in RT mode, implying that the remaining frame time can be estimated around 25ms. In comparison, the anticipated PlayStation 6 could achieve roughly 9.68ms (~103.3 average FPS). Therefore, the supposed increase in ray tracing performance doesn’t translate directly to a tenfold FPS enhancement but rather an approximate 3.10x improvement in frame rates.

Future Implications and Market Considerations

For games featuring more extensive ray tracing or path tracing elements, the performance discrepancy between PlayStation 5 and PlayStation 6 will likely be greater, though it may never reach the elevenable 10x increase suggested in early documents. As KeplerL2 pointed out, even in scenarios demanding higher ray tracing or path tracing, the rasterization and compute aspects of frame rendering typically account for over 50% of the total frame time. Thus, a ’10x RT’ performance boost does not equate to an equivalent increase in FPS.

As the PlayStation 6 awaits its official launch, current analyses serve merely as a preliminary glimpse of its potential capabilities compared to the existing generation. Despite the substantial performance gains, it remains uncertain whether these enhancements will compel PlayStation 5 owners to upgrade, particularly in light of the rising costs associated with gaming hardware.

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