You read that correctly; we are about to delve into a crucial component of AI chips that is currently facing a significant shortage. Interestingly, this essential element is produced by a company renowned for its MSG production.
Ajinomoto: The MSG Producer Dominating ABF Production Essential for Advanced Packaging
The relentless demand for artificial intelligence has left various sectors of the supply chain grappling with shortages. From semiconductors to advanced packaging and OSAT (Outsourced Semiconductor Assembly and Test) services, nearly every aspect of the industry is affected. Although the computing industry’s demand cycles are well understood due to historical trends, the rapid expansion of AI datacenters has escalated customer needs to unprecedented levels, leaving many suppliers puzzled about how to meet these demands aside from temporarily raising prices. A key yet often overlooked component involved in modern chip architecture is the ABF substrate, which ironically is manufactured by a company better known for its food seasoning.
To understand the significance of ABF substrates, let’s explore their technicalities. ABF, or Ajinomoto Build-up Film, is indispensable in advanced packaging systems. This thin insulating film serves as a critical ‘bridge’ linking the silicon die to the PCB connections. Such a substrate is vital for high-performance chips, allowing them to achieve elevated I/O density and maintain signal integrity at multi-gigahertz frequencies. This capability is particularly important for chips like NVIDIA’s Blackwell and Rubin, which are designed to thrive under demanding operational environments.
The complexity of the ABF substrate supply chain is noteworthy, primarily due to its reliance on multiple entities. Ajinomoto Fine-Techno is the primary producer of the ABF film, while Ibiden operates as the substrate manufacturer. Companies like Taiwan’s Unimicron contribute during the final production phases. In this intricate ecosystem, Ajinomoto holds significant power; without its film, the shipping of final packaged AI accelerators becomes impossible.
With the context established, let’s address the primary issue at hand. The demand for ABF film in AI accelerators is considerably higher compared to its use in other components, such as GPUs. The film requirements can increase by 15 to 18 times, necessitating between 8 to over 16 layers of ABF for a traditional accelerator package, depending on size. As larger chips like the Rubin and Rubin Ultra evolve, the dependence on ABF deepens, revealing a clear bottleneck scenario. One might wonder if scaling up production at Ajinomoto would resolve this issue quickly. However, the solution is far more complicated.
A significant challenge lies in the fact that the ABF supply chain predominantly depends on a single producer, Ajinomoto Fine-Techno, for the film material. Given this singular source, it’s impossible for other players to independently address the escalating demand. Although Ajinomoto has initiated measures to boost production, there is an inherent risk of overcommitment. This scenario implies that substrate manufacturers like Ibiden will always operate under a ceiling for ABF availability. Furthermore, as AI packages grow in complexity, the requirements for ABF layers increase, while advancements such as semi-additive patterning (SAP) can threaten yield rates and disrupt the entire multi-layer fabrication process.
With the AI surge not willing to pause for additional ABF production, what alternatives do we have? Hyperscale data centers are acutely aware of this limitation. As a proactive measure, they are engaging in prepayments to assist Ajinomoto in developing new production lines while securing long-term contracts. Nevertheless, the challenge persists—during extensive demand cycles, supply will continue to lag behind, leaving only a select few entities capable of fulfilling their ABF and substrate packaging needs.
The demand for ABF is projected to witness double-digit growth annually. According to DigiTimes, a three-year demand cycle is anticipated, indicating prolonged supply restrictions. Although ABF might not be the most overtly discussed element within the AI supply chain, its critical nature cannot be underestimated, as it has emerged as a significant bottleneck in the scaling of advanced packaging solutions.
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