DRAM Demand to Exceed Supply: Memory Makers Forecast Only 60% Fulfillment Through 2027, Leading to Continued Shortages and Price Increases

The memory shortage crisis is projected to persist for several years, with no immediate stabilization evident. This outcome emerges from the consistent failure of DRAM manufacturers to keep pace with soaring demand.

DRAM Manufacturers Struggle to Meet Long-Term Memory Demand

The tech industry continues to grapple with ongoing supply shortages, a situation exacerbated by the rapid growth in Agentic AI. The substantial demand for memory chips signals that relief may take years to materialize.

A recent analysis from Nikkei Asia corroborates these concerns, estimating that by the close of 2027, DRAM suppliers are anticipated to fulfill only 60% of global demand. As data centers proliferate and consume increasing amounts of DRAM, prices are likely to rise further, while retail supply remains critically low.

A shortage of memory chips appears likely to continue until around 2027, with the top U. S.and South Korean suppliers raising DRAM production at a pace that will meet only about 60% of demand.

via Nikkei Asia

In a recent update, YMTC and CXMT have announced plans for three new fabrication facilities, with one already operational and the other two set to begin operations later this year. This expansion aims to double their overall output.

Despite these developments, AI-focused facilities are reportedly reserving entire yearly supplies in advance. This pre-emptive strategy has triggered acute shortages impacting the smartphone and PC markets. Furthermore, the majority of newly established production lines are dedicated to AI-oriented memory solutions, particularly High Bandwidth Memory (HBM).

In a shift of focus, Samsung and its partners have reduced production of older DRAM technologies, including DDR3, DDR4, and LPDDR4, exacerbating market pressures. Several firms, like Micron’s Crucial brand, have exited the OEM/PC memory segments to pursue more lucrative avenues such as HBM and SOCAMM2. Meanwhile, Chinese manufacturers have stepped in to address these emerging gaps.

The Nikkei report indicates that DRAM producers must increase their annual output by 12% between 2026 and 2027 to meet climbing demand. However, Counterpoint Research highlights a starkly different scenario, with production rates currently improving by a mere 7.5%.

Insights from Counterpoint depict challenging times ahead for PC vendors as memory prices continue to surge. Previous analyses have suggested that memory costs are not expected to normalize until at least late 2028, and current trends affirm this grim outlook with each passing day.

For further reading, visit The Verge.

Source: WCCFTech