Citron Research’s Andrew Left Sets $40 Price Target for Palantir Shares, Indicating Approximately 77% Downside Potential

This article does not constitute investment advice. The author has no financial stake in any of the stocks discussed herein.

The Clash of Palantir and Citron Research’s Short Thesis

The market is witnessing an intriguing standoff between a rapidly rising stock and a determined short seller. Recently, Andrew Left’s Citron Research intensified its bearish outlook on Palantir Technologies. This comes shortly after the company’s latest quarterly earnings report, which Left publicly criticized during an appearance on Fox Business.

In his comments, Left revealed that he has increased his short position on Palantir, labeling his negative view of the stock as “obvious.”His renewed skepticism draws attention as Palantir’s stock continues to soar, despite the looming short thesis presented by Citron Research.

👏 Congrats to OpenAI — a truly great American company. On Friday it confirmed a $500B valuation, the premium multiple for being the best in AI. It also validates what we said last week on Fox Business: even if $PLTR got that same multiple, the math only works out to ~$40 a share…

— Citron Research (@CitronResearch) August 18, 2025

Implications of Citron’s $40 Price Target

Citron Research’s bearish assertion is underscored by a target price of $40 per share for Palantir, indicating a staggering potential decline of almost 77% from its current trading price of $173.64. Left’s rationale hinges on the price-to-sales metric applied to OpenAI, which is notable for its high valuation amidst significant interest in artificial intelligence.

OpenAI’s Valuation and Comparative Analysis

OpenAI currently boasts a market valuation of approximately $500 billion, based on projected revenues of $29.6 billion for 2026. This gives it a price-to-sales multiple of roughly 16.89x. Left utilizes a conservative price-to-sales multiple of 17x for his valuation on Palantir.

When this multiple is applied to Palantir’s anticipated revenue of $5.6 billion in 2026, it results in a theoretical valuation of $95.2 billion, corresponding to his $40 per share target.

Palantir’s Growth Trajectory and Business Model

Palantir operates with two main platforms: Gotham, tailored for government data analytics, and Foundry, designed for enterprise-level data integration and analysis. The company is also making strides with its proprietary Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP), which integrates various large language models (LLMs) and generative AI applications into business operations.

Looking ahead, Palantir has set ambitious targets for its commercial operations, expecting to generate over $1.302 billion in revenue for fiscal year 2025, which represents an impressive year-over-year growth rate of at least 85%.CEO Alex Karp envisions a tenfold increase in this growth over the next five years, implying a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 58%, as calculated by UBS.

Future Revenue Estimates and Market Expectations

For FY 2025, Palantir forecasts revenues in the range of $4.142 billion to $4.152 billion. The consensus estimate for 2026’s revenue of $5.6 billion indicates a robust year-over-year growth rate of 35%, aligning with the upper limits of its 2025 guidance.

Conclusion: The Divergence in Valuation Perspectives

Citron Research’s $40 price target starkly contrasts with Palantir’s soaring valuation, highlighting a significant disconnect from fundamental analysis principles. As the market observes these developments, the tension between Palantir’s growth narrative and Citron’s short thesis promises to be a focal point of interest among investors and analysts alike.

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