Captain America: Brave New World Box Office Expectations Show Positive Trends

Overview

*Captain America: Brave New World* is projected to exceed previous franchise films by approximately 40% in ticket pre-sales.
Current estimates suggest the film could achieve an opening weekend gross of up to $105 million domestically, with total earnings likely to fall between $207 million and $274 million.
International pre-sales are also promising, particularly in China, where the opening day figures have outpaced past *Captain America* films.

As the premiere of Captain America: Brave New World approaches, Marvel executives Kevin Feige and Bob Iger are witnessing positive trends in ticket sales. Recent data indicates that the film is set to outperform earlier expectations significantly.

With fewer than four days remaining before its release, the promotional campaign for this installment in the Marvel Cinematic Universe is well underway. This film marks the first MCU offering of the year and follows the release of *Deadpool & Wolverine* on July 26, 2024. In its initial two days of pre-sales, *Brave New World* has demonstrated a robust performance, exceeding the early ticket sales of past underperformers like *The Marvels* by 40% and matching figures from *Eternals*, *Black Widow*, and *Dune: Part Two*.

Projected Opening Weekend Earnings for Captain America: Brave New World

Opening Weekend Estimates: A Minimum of $86 Million

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Earlier forecasts suggested a domestic opening weekend for *Captain America: Brave New World* could be around $95 million. However, recent insights from Box Office Theory have revised that estimate, now predicting a three-day domestic premiere of at least $86 million, with a potential peak of $105 million. The overall domestic total is now anticipated to fall between $207 million and $274 million, slightly exceeding prior projections of $195 million to $280 million.

Internationally, the film’s pre-sales appear equally strong. As reported by Luiz Fernando on X, Chinese ticket sales reached $346, 000 on the first day of pre-sales, surpassing early figures for *Deadpool & Wolverine*, *The Batman*, and *Dune: Part Two*, which were at $221, 000, $175, 000, and $87, 000, respectively.

If *Captain America: Brave New World* performs at the higher end of expectations, it will outperform *Captain America: The Winter Soldier*, which grossed $95 million during its opening weekend, but may fall short of *Captain America: Civil War’s* impressive $179 million. It’s worth noting that *Civil War* functioned almost like an Avengers film given its ensemble cast.

While these predictions give a positive outlook, it is important to note that projections can fluctuate, particularly post-Super Bowl, suggesting that upcoming estimates are likely to be revised upwards. General audience skepticism remains, especially considering concerns over multiple reshoots. With a production budget estimated at around $180 million, Marvel and Disney aim for the movie to secure at least $500 million globally for it to break even, a target seen as achievable given the film’s lack of competition and the anticipation surrounding the character’s new incarnation.

Source: Box Office Theory, Luiz Fernando/X, The Hollywood Reporter

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