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UPDATE: 2025/01/26 07:30 EST BY BRENNAN KLEIN
Flight Risk Impresses with $12 Million Opening Weekend
This article was originally drafted on Saturday morning and has been updated with the latest box office estimates (highlighted in bold) as of Sunday morning, along with a comprehensive chart and further analysis.
The suspense thriller Flight Risk has taken the box office by storm during its opening weekend, garnering significant attention. Directed by Mel Gibson and featuring Mark Wahlberg as a mob hitman disguised as a pilot, the film sees its characters, Deputy U. S.Marshal Madelyn Harris (played by Michelle Dockery) and informant Winston (Topher Grace), entangled in a high-stakes predicament aboard a small aircraft. This release marks another entry from Lionsgate, a studio that faced a series of notable failures in 2024, including titles like Borderlands and White Bird.
As reported by TheWrap, Flight Risk is expected to achieve a 3-day domestic box office total of $12 million by the end of its opening weekend. This performance is poised to dethrone the 2024 lingering favorite, Mufasa: The Lion King, from the top position. Remarkably, Flight Risk is the second film released in 2025 to claim the number one spot at the domestic box office, following Lionsgate’s Den of Thieves 2: Pantera, despite receiving lackluster reviews, currently holding a dismal 21% rating on Rotten Tomatoes.
In a parallel narrative, the new release Presence, directed by Stephen Soderbergh and focused on a haunted house theme, closely competed for the No.5 position with the enduring Disney hit Moana 2. Ultimately, Moana 2 outperformed, achieving $4.1 million against Presence’s $3.4 million opening. Another newcomer, the Jared Harris-led drama Brave the Dark from Angel Studios, failed to break into the Top 10, debuting at just $2.2 million compared to its average of $5 million. Below, we provide the complete Top 5 domestic chart for the weekend:
|
# |
Title |
3-Day Total |
Cumulative (Domestic) |
|---|---|---|---|
|
1 |
Flight Risk |
$12 million |
$12 million (week 1) |
|
2 |
Mufasa: The Lion King |
$8.2 million |
$220 million (week 6) |
|
3 |
One of Them Days |
$7.75 million |
$24.8 million (week 2) |
|
4 |
Sonic the Hedgehog 3 |
$5.5 million |
$226 million (week 6) |
|
5 |
Ocean 2 |
$4.1 million |
$448 million (week 9) |
Contrastingly, the previous weekend’s new releases have faced varying degrees of success. The Keke Palmer comedy One of Them Days, despite a drop from No.2 to No.3, managed an impressive week-on-week decline of just 34%.In stark contrast, the Blumhouse horror film reboot, Wolf Man, suffered a staggering 72% drop in its second weekend. The film’s $2 million earnings led it to tumble from No.3 to No.7, marking Blumhouse’s most significant drop since August 2024’s AfrAId.
Furthermore, Den of Thieves 2: Pantera has also exited the charts, which saw a decline from No.1 to No.5 in its second weekend. Projections indicate a 3-day total of around $3 million for its third outing, landing it at No.9. Its cumulative earnings stand at $31.8 million, still showing reasonable progress compared to the original 2018 film, which made $36.1 million by its third weekend.
What Does This Mean for Flight Risk?
Thriving Amidst a Declining Box Office
Flight Risk’s initial success hints at a potentially favorable trajectory for its theatrical journey, especially considering its production budget of only $10 million. In order to break even, it will need to reach approximately $25 million in box office earnings, a goal it appears poised to achieve. However, despite this promising outlook for Flight Risk, the general box office is struggling with an estimated weekend total of merely $64 million, the lowest figure observed this year.
Notably, the previous low-grossing weekend was during the Martin Luther King Jr.holiday, totaling $77.6 million.
While challenges persist in the box office landscape, Flight Risk’s ascent to the top spot reflects a significant rebound for Lionsgate following the success of Den of Thieves 2. This trend suggests that the studio’s 2025 lineup is resonating far better with audiences compared to last year’s offerings. As the year progresses, Lionsgate has a robust slate ahead, featuring anticipated titles such as John Wick: Ballerina, Saw XI, and Now You See Me 3, culminating in 2026 with The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping.
Our Perspective on the Weekend Box Office
Potential Rough Waters Ahead for January
The trajectory seen with Flight Risk may continue for upcoming 2025 releases, including the thriller Companion and the Valentine’s Day horror film Heart Eyes. However, improvements in the domestic box office may not be fully realized until February 14, coinciding with the highly anticipated release of Captain America: Brave New World. This Marvel film is projected to open with more than $90 million at the domestic box office, effectively earning more than the total for all films released over the past three weekends combined.
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Source: TheWrap
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