Update: January 19, 2025 – 08:06 EST by Brennan Klein
Mufasa Remains Unchallenged at the Box Office
This report was initially drafted on Saturday morning and has been refreshed following Sunday’s latest box office projections, illustrating a full chart and detailed analysis.
The domestic box office landscape has experienced surprising shifts, with Mufasa: The Lion King, One of Them Days, and Wolf Man delivering results that starkly contrast expectations. The Universal horror reboot, Wolf Man, directed by Leigh Whannell, opened during the Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday, coinciding with the premiere of the Keke Palmer-led comedy, One of Them Days. Mufasa is the most established of the three, launching its campaign back in December 2024, right before the Christmas season.
According to Deadline, Mufasa: The Lion King is anticipated to conclude the long weekend with a 4-day domestic total of $15.5 million, securing the top spot of the weekend and outpacing all new releases for 2025 to date. This includes the highly anticipated sequel, Den of Thieves 2: Pantera. Notably, this figure marks the lowest earning for a No. 1 film during the MLK weekend since 1997, when Beverly Hills Ninja debuted at $12.2 million—equivalent to $24.2 million adjusted for inflation.
On the other hand, One of Them Days has surpassed initial forecasts, attaining the No. 2 position with a projected 4-day gross of $14 million. This surpasses Wolf Man, now predicted to take the No. 3 spot with a 4-day start tallying at $12 million. Below, you can find the complete Top 5 chart for the domestic box office over the MLK weekend, inclusive of projections for both the traditional 3-day weekend and the extended 4-day holiday period:
|
# |
Title |
3-Day Total |
4-Day Total |
Cumulative (Domestic) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1 |
Mufasa: The Lion King |
$11.5 million |
$15.5 million |
$209.7 million (Week 5) |
|
2 |
One of Them Days |
~$12.5 million |
$14 million |
$14 million (Weekend 1) |
|
3 |
Wolf Man |
$10.55 million |
$12 million |
$12 million (Weekend 1) |
|
4 |
Sonic the Hedgehog 3 |
$7.9 million |
$10.3 million |
$218.1 million (Week 5) |
|
5 |
Den of Thieves 2: Pantera |
$6.6 million |
$7.7 million |
$27.3 million (Weekend 2) |
Mufasa continues its upward trend, steadily outperforming Sonic the Hedgehog 3 after originally challenging its box office reign. The video game adaptation held the No. 1 position in the previous weeks until Mufasa claimed the top spot during their shared third weekend. Since then, The Lion King prequel has consistently remained above Sonic on the charts. Nonetheless, Sonic remains resilient, just slipping from No. 3 to No. 4 with a modest week-over-week decline of 30%, likely supported by the proximity of the holiday weekend.
The emergence of two new titles in the Top 5 necessitated the exit of two holdovers. Disney’s Moana 2 has tumbled from No. 5 to No. 6, drawing in $8.3 million over the 4-day weekend while only seeing a slight 7% decrease. This marks the first weekend since its Thanksgiving premiere that it has been omitted from the Top 5. In a parallel situation, Nosferatu, which debuted on Christmas Day, has descended from No. 4 to No. 7 after its fourth weekend, accumulating a 4-day total of $5.1 million while experiencing a 38% drop.
Implications for One Of Them Days and Wolf Man
Diverging Prospects
Initial forecasts indicated a robust opening for Wolf Man against its MLK weekend contenders; however, the positive reception for One of Them Days might have shifted the scales in its favor. Garnering an exceptional Rotten Tomatoes score of 96%, the film marks a career best for Keke Palmer. Conversely, Wolf Man has faced a lukewarm response with a Rotten score of 53%.
For context, Leigh Whannell’s earlier work, The Invisible Man, was met with acclaim, boasting a Certified Fresh score of 91%.
This divergence suggests that the launch for Wolf Man may struggle to keep pace with the success of One of Them Days, both in raw figures and overall profitability. With a production budget of $14 million, One of Them Days is set to recoup its costs by the weekend’s end, inching closer to the break-even target of $35 million. In contrast, Wolf Man carries a steeper budget of $25 million, suggesting a break-even point around $62.5 million—an ambitious hurdle, particularly as horror films traditionally face sharp declines in their second week.
Our Analysis of the Weekend Box Office
2025 Faces Challenging Beginnings
While the outlook appears favorable for One of Them Days, the inability of both it and Wolf Man to eclipse Mufasa: The Lion King in its fifth weekend indicates that 2025 has yet to yield a significant blockbuster. Notably, this Martin Luther King Jr. weekend is marked as the third-lowest in terms of overall box office revenue over the past decade. As a result, it seems the box office may experience a much-needed boost by February 14, coinciding with the blockbuster dual release of Captain America: Brave New World and Paddington in Peru.
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Source: Deadline
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