As the 2025 box office begins to unfold, early contenders for success are emerging alongside the final films from 2024. Notably, “Den of Thieves 2: Pantera”and “Better Man”are set to make their marks, with audiences eager for fresh cinematic experiences. While the unique Robbie Williams biopic, featuring a CGI chimpanzee, had a limited release over the Christmas season in merely six theaters, it remains to be seen how these new films will perform after their launches. “Better Man”is slated for a wide release on January 10, directly competing with Gerard Butler and O’Shea Jackson Jr. in the much-anticipated sequel to the 2018 action hit.
At this crucial juncture, the option for viewers to enjoy “Den of Thieves 2″and “Better Man”in theaters is vital for revitalizing box office numbers. The first weekend of January saw strong performances from “Mufasa: The Lion King,””Sonic the Hedgehog 3,””Nosferatu,””Moana 2,”and “Wicked.”In comparison, last week’s only new releases, Vertical’s horror “The Damned”and Warner Bros.’ re-release of “Se7en,”struggled and could not surpass “Mufasa”as the leading earner. This weekend, both “Den of Thieves 2″and “Better Man”are vying to change that narrative.
Den Of Thieves 2: Pantera – Opening Weekend Projections
Gerard Butler’s Sequel May Generate $15M+
Lionsgate is set to release “Den of Thieves 2: Pantera,”having navigated through multiple distribution changes during the sequel’s development. The studio, recognized for its work on “John Wick,”is aiming for another franchise success following the original “Den of Thieves,”which debuted with $15.2 million in January 2018 and ultimately grossed $44.9 million domestically and $80.5 million globally. The first film opened third, trailing behind the releases of “12 Strong”and “Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle.”
Preliminary projections for the sequel suggest a similar opening to its predecessor, with estimates ranging from $10 million to $15 million per Box Office Pro. Nonetheless, factors indicate that it could surpass these expectations: a shorter runtime than the first film and an absence of competing R-rated action films skewed toward an adult male audience. If audiences respond positively, it is conceivable that “Den of Thieves 2″could meet or even outpace the $16.5 million launched by Jason Statham’s “The Beekeeper”during the same weekend last year.
Should critical reception improve relative to the original film, the opening weekend for “Den of Thieves 2″could fall between $15 million and $20 million. Historically, Butler’s productions tend to open above the $10 million mark, as seen in “Plane,””Angel Has Fallen,”and “Olympus Has Fallen.”The performance of the “Has Fallen”sequels, which each exceeded $21 million in their debuts, further highlights Butler’s box office appeal as an action star.
Better Man – Opening Weekend Projections
The Robbie Williams Biopic Faces Uncertainty
In contrast, Paramount is counting on “Better Man,”the CGI-animated biopic directed by Michael Gracey, to make a splash; the film boasted a substantial budget of approximately $110 million. However, its initial box office performance has been dismal, partly due to a limited release in just six theaters, which resulted in earnings below six figures during its first two weeks. The film is expected to roll out to a broader audience on January 10, but the impact of this wider distribution remains to be determined.
Although exact theater counts are undisclosed, projections suggest “Better Man”will expand to over 600 venues. Growing interest is evident, with average ticket sales per theater improving — from $3,043 at its beginning to $4,349 last weekend. Despite positive reviews aiding visibility, a cautious estimate for its opening weekend box office suggests a figure around $5 million or below. For better outcomes, the film would require either a higher per-theater average or occupancy in over 1,000 venues.
New Indie Releases for January 10 & Box Office Projections
The Last Showgirl & Hard Truths Launch This Weekend
In addition to “Den of Thieves 2″and “Better Man,”January 10 marks the debut of two indie films: “The Last Showgirl”and “Hard Truths.”Both films are finding their way into this award season, with Pamela Anderson earning Golden Globe and SAG nominations for her role in “The Last Showgirl.”With Oscar voting currently ongoing, these releases provide significant opportunities for recognition.
However, both indie films may not achieve immediate box office success, as there is no official tracking data available at this time. The distribution of “Hard Truths”by Bleecker Street is likely to yield an opening weekend gross under $1 million.
Upcoming Releases: Mufasa, Sonic 3, Nosferatu, and More
Late 2024 Releases Continue to Perform Impressively
The box office is expected to see continued success from late 2024 releases throughout the January 10-12 weekend. “Mufasa”and “Sonic the Hedgehog 3″have been in a competitive battle for box office supremacy over the past few weeks. While “Sonic 3″initially outperformed during its opening weekend, “Mufasa”has demonstrated stamina, recently surpassing the animated sequel in total earnings. Both films reportedly garnered over $21 million last weekend, maintaining a narrow margin between them.
For its fourth weekend, “Mufasa: The Lion King”displays promising trends, indicated by a 3.6% increase in its second weekend followed by a moderate 36.3% drop in its third week. This pattern suggests potential earnings of $15 million to $18 million for the weekend ahead. Conversely, “Sonic 3″may see revenues between $13 million to $16 million if it continues to lag.
Globally, “Mufasa: The Lion King”has surpassed “Sonic the Hedgehog 3″in overall box office receipts. Other films in theaters this January, including “Nosferatu,””Moana 2,””Wicked,””A Complete Unknown,”and “Babygirl,”are also highlighting encouraging trends. Particularly, Robert Eggers’ “Nosferatu”demonstrated a drop under 40% in its second weekend, suggesting it could reach another $7 million to $10 million in its upcoming performance.
Predicted Top 10 Box Office for January 10-12, 2025
Predictions Favor Mufasa’s Continued Dominance
The weekend of January 10-12 positions three films as contenders for the top spot, with “Mufasa,””Sonic 3,”and “Den of Thieves 2″expected to lead the box office race. It is conceivable that any of these titles could emerge as the weekend’s champion once final numbers are reported. Currently, I anticipate that “Mufasa”will retain its position at the top for a second successive weekend.
|
Movie |
Predicted Weekend Box Office |
|
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mufasa: The Lion King | $17.8 million |
| 2 | Sonic the Hedgehog 3 | $16.1 million |
| 3 | Den of Thieves 2: Pantera | $15.8 million |
| 4 | Nosferatu | $10.1 million |
| 5 | Ocean 2 | $7.5 million |
| 6 | A Complete Unknown | $5.3 million |
| 7 | Wicked | $5.1 million |
| 8 | Babygirl | $4 million |
| 9 | Better Man | $3.2 million |
| 10 | Gladiator II | $2 million |
It wouldn’t be surprising if “Den of Thieves 2″managed to dominate the weekend, but it will need robust support from male audiences to achieve that. As predicted, “Nosferatu”and “Moana 2″will likely occupy the subsequent spots in the top five, highlighting an impressive streak for Disney’s animated sequel. Meanwhile, “A Complete Unknown”is expected to continue its positive trajectory as awards season gains momentum, benefiting alongside “Wicked”and “Babygirl.””Better Man”and “Gladiator II”round out the anticipated top 10 for this weekend’s box office.
Source: Box Office Pro
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