Apple to Ship 9 Million iPhone Units to the US from China in FY 2026 Despite Production Shift to India

In a strategic move to alleviate risks linked to its global supply chain, Apple has transitioned a significant portion of its iPhone manufacturing from China to India. However, recent insights from a Jefferies analyst indicate that Apple remains susceptible to its Chinese operations, projecting that approximately 9 million iPhones will still be shipped directly from China to the United States.

Apple’s Strategic Dual Approach

To navigate the challenges posed by import tariffs and the ongoing trade conflict, Apple has implemented a comprehensive two-part strategy:

Transitioning the majority of its iPhone production from China to India.
After the Trump administration raised import tariffs on Indian products, Apple successfully obtained a temporary exemption by committing to invest $600 billion domestically, aimed at establishing a robust end-to-end silicon supply chain.

These strategic measures have effectively reduced Apple’s exposure to tariff-related risks. Nonetheless, geopolitical tensions reignited when Trump’s administration highlighted China’s stringent regulations on rare earth exports and hinted at the possibility of imposing 100 percent tariffs on additional goods.

Although the U. S.administration has reportedly taken steps back from the brink of an all-encompassing trade war, and Trump has described the forthcoming changes to tariffs as an “eternity”away, the economic landscape remains shaky.

Potential Fiscal Impact on Apple

In light of these developments, Jefferies has provided a thought-provoking analysis regarding Apple’s financial outlook, particularly concerning its fiscal year 2026. The firm predicts that a high tariff of 130 percent on these 9 million iPhones could result in a 5 percent reduction in Apple’s earnings per share (EPS).

Despite Apple’s efforts to shift production to India, Jefferies suggests that the company may still depend on its Chinese manufacturing capabilities to fulfill the increasing demand for iPhones in the U. S.market:

“Apple is unlikely to meet all U. S.demand from its Indian production base in the near term, making it more exposed if tariffs are enforced.”

Jefferies estimates that Apple could anticipate shipping around 9 million iPhone units from China to the U. S.in fiscal year 2026, which begins in October.

As Apple navigates these complex challenges, it remains to be seen how effectively the company can manage customs duties and geopolitical friction while satisfying consumer demand.

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