Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley Discusses Extensive Updates and Expansion of Tesla Mobility (Robotaxi) Model Since 2015

This article does not provide investment advice. The author does not hold shares in any of the stocks mentioned.

Tesla’s Bold New Horizons and Analyst Insights

Tesla is currently capturing considerable attention on Wall Street, driven not solely by its automotive sector performance but by a renewed emphasis on autonomous vehicles (AVs) and humanoid robotics. This strategic shift opens avenues to a significantly larger Total Addressable Market (TAM), leading to a wave of optimistic stock price predictions. Recently, Adam Jonas from Morgan Stanley, a well-known Tesla bulls advocate, presented his optimistic outlook on the stock.

Morgan Stanley Raises $TSLA PT to $430 from $400 – Overweight

Analyst comments: “As interest in autonomous vehicles (AVs) continues to rise, we have conducted the most extensive re-architecture and expansion of our Tesla Mobility (robotaxi) model since its initial publication in…

— Wall St Engine (@wallstengine) January 13, 2025

Analyst Perspectives on Tesla’s Future

Jonas emphasizes that his latest investment analysis derives from a thorough reevaluation of the Tesla Mobility model, marking the most significant update since its 2015 inception. He acknowledges existing challenges in Tesla’s core automotive business, particularly in the competitive FY25 EV landscape. However, Jonas posits an ambitious bull case price target of $800, attributing potential growth mainly to advancements in “embodied AI.”

As a brief overview, Tesla’s EV sector continues to wrestle with demanding challenges, particularly from emerging competitors in the Chinese market and stagnant demand for its mature vehicle line-up. To address these issues, Tesla has implemented pricing strategies and introduced new versions of the Model 3 and Model Y, alongside rumors of an affordable hatchback—referred to as the Model Q—to further stimulate interest.

Strategic Advantages and Future Projections

Jonas argues the recent rise in Tesla’s stock price is indicative of its growing dominance in physical AI technologies, leveraging its strengths in data collection, robotics, energy storage, and manufacturing synergies with other Musk enterprises such as SpaceX and xAI. He succinctly captures this sentiment:

“We see 2025 as a year where Tesla’s unique skillset could be further reflected in its valuation, despite well-known challenges in the FY25 EV market.”

Looking beyond 2025, Jonas anticipates that Tesla’s TAM will broaden significantly, venturing into uncharted sectors that current financial models do not yet accommodate.

Special attention is warranted on Elon Musk’s growing inclination to leverage Tesla’s fully self-driving (FSD) capabilities and the Optimus humanoid robots to bolster investor confidence. Musk has announced that a completely autonomous version of the FSD is scheduled for release later this year, with the eagerly awaited Cybercab debuting in 2026. The latest iteration of the FSD, version 13, has generated positive sentiment among investors regarding these timelines. Moreover, Musk has expressed ambitious goals for the Optimus robot, aiming for production between 50,000 and 100,000 units in 2026, potentially increasing tenfold in the following year.

Revised Stock Price Target

In response to these developments, Morgan Stanley has updated its price target for Tesla’s stock from $400 to $430, while maintaining an audacious bull case target at $800. The market is undoubtedly watching closely as Tesla navigates its evolving landscape of AI and robotics.

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