2025 Oscars Best Picture Race Becomes More Defined

The race for the coveted Best Picture at the 2025 Academy Awards is beginning to crystallize. Established by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences in 1929, the Oscars celebrate outstanding artistic contributions to cinema across various categories including acting, directing, and scoring. The Best Picture award is particularly prestigious, recognizing the film that Academy voters consider to be the highest achievement of the year.

Throughout history, the diversity of Best Picture winners reflects the evolving landscape of cinema. From the silent film Wings (1927) featuring Clara Bow to Christopher Nolan’s riveting biopic Oppenheimer (2023), which stars Cillian Murphy, the range is vast. Iconic classics like Casablanca (1942), The Sound of Music (1964), The Godfather (1971), and Schindler’s List (1992) stand alongside films that stirred controversy upon their victory, such as Forrest Gump (1994) and Crash (2004).

Producers Guild Award Nominees Foreshadow Oscar Contenders

A Strong Correlation between PGA and Oscar Nominees

Adrien Brody and Felicity Jones in The Brutalist

On January 16, the nominations for the 36th Producers Guild of America (PGA) Awards were unveiled, featuring the prestigious Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures. This year’s nominees include Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave, A Complete Unknown, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, A Real Pain, September 5, The Substance, and Wicked. Since the variable category was expanded to a maximum of 10 nominees in 2009, a close alignment with the Oscar nominations has typically followed.

Currently, the Oscars’ shortlists comprise ten categories, though Best Picture is notably absent from this selection. The Oscar nominations will be revealed on January 19, and history suggests a significant overlap with the PGA nominees. On average, around 8 out of the 10 PGA contenders have received nominations for Best Picture at the Oscars since the expansion of the category, with only one instance of a complete match occurring in 2023. That year, both the PGA and the Academy nominated films like American Fiction and Barbie.

The Importance of PGA Nominations in Pursuit of Best Picture

The Correlation with Past Winners

In addition to aligning nominees, the PGA Awards have historically been a strong indicator of the eventual Oscar winners. Since their inception in 1989, only once has a film claimed the Best Picture Oscar without a PGA nomination; that film was Braveheart (1995). In that year, the PGA nominated titles such as Apollo 13, which subsequently won the Oscar. Notably, Braveheart faced a year where PGA nominees did not include several Oscar contenders, complicating that year’s awards dynamics.

Insights reveal that those who secure both PGA and Oscar nominations dramatically increase their chances of claiming the Best Picture title. Historically, the PGA’s winners have also overlapped with the Oscars’ Best Picture results, securing the same outcome 25 times out of 35. However, the PGA has often embraced more eclectic selections, presenting nominations for comedic and musical films that receive limited Oscar recognition, such as Glass Onion: A Knives Out Story and Crazy Rich Asians.

Implications of PGA Nominations for the Upcoming Oscars

Identifying Leading Contenders

Ani and Ivan's wedding celebration in Anora

Several films have showcased significant momentum throughout the 2024-2025 awards season, making them likely candidates for a Best Picture nomination. Among these are Sean Baker’s Anora, Brady Corbet’s The Brutalist, James Mangold’s A Complete Unknown, Edward Berger’s Conclave, and Jacques Audiard’s Emilia Pérez. Each has not only garnered attention from the PGA but also nominations at the Golden Globes and Critics’ Choice Awards, signaling their strong potential.

While the PGA nominations bolster the chances of films like Dune: Part Two and others, it remains plausible that one or two might be edged out for more formidable contenders as the awards season progresses. Upcoming possible challengers include Sing Sing, Nickel Boys, Challengers, Gladiator II, The Room Next Door, and All We Imagine as Light.

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